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Grange95's profile
Grange
Grange
Grange
@Grange95

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Grange

@Grange95

Recovering lawyer, Huskers & Packers fan, poker degenerate, scurvy fighter, sarcastic SOB ... Mostly here for the dogs.

West Des Moines, IA
craakker.blogspot.com
Joined April 2009

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    1. Jessica Welman‏ @jesswelman 18 Mar 2018

      Jessica Welman Retweeted Darren Rovell

      Unless you are in some sort of real-life version of Brewster's Millions, there is no reason on the planet to place this bet.https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/975539261452816384 …

      Jessica Welman added,

      Darren RovellVerified account @darrenrovell
      Worst Bet Of The Night: With Cincinnati up 22 on Nevada, a bettor on William Hill’s InPlay app bet $2,000 on the Bearcats to win. If they did win (they didn’t), it would have paid out — you ready — $26.65!!!
      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Brett Collson‏ @brettcollson 18 Mar 2018
      Replying to @jesswelman

      Not saying it is ... but what if it's still +EV? We don't hear about this bet the 99.5% of the time it hits.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Jessica Welman‏ @jesswelman 18 Mar 2018
      Replying to @brettcollson

      If you need $27 that badly, I will give it to you.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Brett Collson‏ @brettcollson 18 Mar 2018
      Replying to @jesswelman

      Just saying. The small wins add up quickly when you're on the right side.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Jessica Welman‏ @jesswelman 18 Mar 2018
      Replying to @brettcollson

      I guess the risk v reward is just too out of whack for me. Who is a person that can afford to lose $2K, but cares enough about earning $27 to put such a sum at risk?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Brett Collson‏ @brettcollson 18 Mar 2018
      Replying to @jesswelman

      A high volume bettor that identifies an edge. Or a complete degenerate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Grange‏ @Grange95 19 Mar 2018
      Replying to @brettcollson @jesswelman

      All volume does is reduce the volatility. Instead of one bet of $2,000 winning $26.65 or losing altogether, you might have 100 bets ($200K total) winning roughly $2,665 in the aggregate over time. (1/3)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Grange‏ @Grange95 19 Mar 2018
      Replying to @Grange95 @brettcollson @jesswelman

      (2/3) The correct question is whether 133 bps (1.33%) correctly compensates for the risk you are taking. This is harder to answer. But a 3-month treasury bill right now pays ~1.77%, and is one common measure of a "risk free rate return".

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Grange‏ @Grange95 19 Mar 2018
      Replying to @Grange95 @brettcollson @jesswelman

      (3/3) I'm not familiar with the usual edges the big money gaming consortiums are looking to exploit. But at 1.33% return, it seems like there would've been a lot more profitable ways to invest that money.

      4:39 AM - 19 Mar 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Grange‏ @Grange95 19 Mar 2018
          Replying to @Grange95 @brettcollson @jesswelman

          (4/3) Also possible that two different sites had significantly different prices for the bet, setting up an arbitrage opportunity. We only hear about the losing side when the bettor was actually free rolling.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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