13/ Justice Kennedy is strong supporter of states' rights and commandeering doctrine, but PASPA is not a straight-forward example of commandeering. Peg him as "leaning state".
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14/ Chief Justice Roberts is conservative, but in a more traditional vein and less libertarian, with more deference to Congress. Rate him a toss-up.
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15/ Sports betting advocates likely need a sweep of Roberts, Kennedy, & Alito to win. So watch their questions closely to see what concerns they might have and what resolutions they might be pitching.
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16/ One potential resolution would be for the Court to find PASPA ban on state operation of sports betting unconstitutional, but leave intact the ban on private actors (e.g., casinos).
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17/ Under this scenario, NJ couldn't funnel sports betting to designated casinos, but would have to set up its own state-run sports betting shop (which DE currently does via its lottery).
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18/ The sleeper resolution is the "equal sovereignty" argument--Why can NV have nice things like sports betting, but NJ can't?
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19/ The parties have focused on commandeering, but amicus briefs raised the equal sovereignty issue. It would give the Court a way to avoid the commandeering issue, and let NJ have state-regulated sports betting in casinos, a la NV.
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20/ If the justices show interest in the equal sovereignty argument, New Jersey's in-game odds go way up.
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21/ So, key things to watch for in argument: * Concerns about recreational marijuana * Skepticism about "limited repeal" funneling sports betting to casinos * Interest in equal sovereignty
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Replying to @Grange95
Minnesota needs nice things as well. Great breakdown!
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Minnesota can't have nice things until it learns to play Duck Duck Goose.
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