5/ Prop bet: Liberal judge will ask: "Doesn't NJ state constitution *require* the legislature to affirmatively authorize sports betting by law?"
15/ Sports betting advocates likely need a sweep of Roberts, Kennedy, & Alito to win. So watch their questions closely to see what concerns they might have and what resolutions they might be pitching.
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16/ One potential resolution would be for the Court to find PASPA ban on state operation of sports betting unconstitutional, but leave intact the ban on private actors (e.g., casinos).
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17/ Under this scenario, NJ couldn't funnel sports betting to designated casinos, but would have to set up its own state-run sports betting shop (which DE currently does via its lottery).
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18/ The sleeper resolution is the "equal sovereignty" argument--Why can NV have nice things like sports betting, but NJ can't?
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19/ The parties have focused on commandeering, but amicus briefs raised the equal sovereignty issue. It would give the Court a way to avoid the commandeering issue, and let NJ have state-regulated sports betting in casinos, a la NV.
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20/ If the justices show interest in the equal sovereignty argument, New Jersey's in-game odds go way up.
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21/ So, key things to watch for in argument: * Concerns about recreational marijuana * Skepticism about "limited repeal" funneling sports betting to casinos * Interest in equal sovereignty
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22/ As for key players, Ted Olson for NJ is a SCOTUS Hall-of-Famer, but Paul Clement for the leagues is possibly the best modern SCOTUS advocate. This is Aaron Rodgers v. Tom Brady level lawyering.
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23/ Also, Clement is a respected conservative. He knows how to frame arguments for the conservative judges and has credibility with them. So, slight edge to leagues.
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24/ IMHO, the leagues are a slight favorite to win if it's a commandeering case. NJ is slight favorite if equal sovereignty gets traction.
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25/ Anyway, it's exciting for sports betting to have a real shot at SCOTUS. Enjoy the show, and check back with
@DustinGouker in a few hours for the game highlights.Show this thread -
26/ And follow
@McCannSportsLaw and@SportsLawProf for detailed legal analysis in the post-game show brought to you by the Las Vegas Raiders.Show this thread
End of conversation
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