Trump is at a low point in the polls. He might bounce back a bit, or the stress might cause him to make it worse.https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/761563480860135424 …
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Replying to @BJNemeth
I think it's possible that traditional Republicans are starting to abandon Trump, and these are just first cracks in a dam about to break.
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Replying to @BJNemeth
My theory is that after the primaries, a lot of Republicans fell in line behind Trump, hoping he'd pivot and start acting more presidential.
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Replying to @BJNemeth
If anything, the past couple weeks show Trump separating himself from the Republican Party, so it may be their turn to separate from Trump.
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Replying to @BJNemeth
But if Republicans do abandon Trump in large numbers, that creates a rare opportunity for 3rd-party Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party.
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Replying to @BJNemeth
The Libertarian Party is doing historically well and will still likely struggle to break 10%. Maybe win Utah?
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Replying to @Grange95
If the Republican dam for Trump breaks before the debates, Johnson might get the 15% he needs to debate.
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That could create real drama. What if Trump refuses to debate? Would Hillary also refuse rather than go 1-on-1 with Gary Johnson?
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Hillary would debate Johnson in that scenario. She can't afford to ignore the political forms.
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