I know every facebook blowhard witters on about death rates and how everyone is just being a whiny snowflake, but look at those numbers from Italy. 40% of people who have it are in hospital. Forty Percent. Forty.
This is why the uncertainty re number of infections makes it hard to gauge severity. If 50% v. 10% of cases are known, then applying the 40% hospitalization rate (itself problematic) means 20% v. 4% of cases are severe enough to require hospitalization.
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Of course, this virus seems to have a long latency period before symptoms develop. So some number of currently asymptomatic carriers will become symptomatic and be diagnosed.
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Also, in the Italian group you noted, the question is why such a high hospitalization rate? Was it in part because of fear of a new disease so the hospitalization was precautionary and/or a de facto quarantine?
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But that also doubles or tenfold multiplies the number of cases so the underlying number of people in hospital remains the same either way. Point being not the individual level risk but the systemic one.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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