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Grange95's profile
Grange
Grange
Grange
@Grange95

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Grange

@Grange95

Recovering lawyer, Huskers & Packers fan, poker degenerate, scurvy fighter, sarcastic SOB ... Mostly here for the dogs.

West Des Moines, IA
craakker.blogspot.com
Joined April 2009

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    1. Alun‏ @gamblinglamb Mar 3

      I know every facebook blowhard witters on about death rates and how everyone is just being a whiny snowflake, but look at those numbers from Italy. 40% of people who have it are in hospital. Forty Percent. Forty.

      8 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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    2. Grange‏ @Grange95 Mar 3
      Replying to @gamblinglamb

      The 40% number is misleading to wrong. A big problem is we know the number of hospitalizations/fatalities (numerator) but we have no clue about infections (denominator).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Alun‏ @gamblinglamb Mar 3
      Replying to @Grange95

      It’s only misleading depending on the direction you’re approaching it from. If you say 100k people infected of whom 10k show symptoms then you can say 4,000 people in hospital. It’s a lot. 1m infections it’s 40,000 etc etc

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Grange‏ @Grange95 Mar 4
      Replying to @gamblinglamb

      My point is we have no idea how many people have been infected (the denominator). So you can’t meaningfully say what percentage are hospitalized or what the mortality rate is. We just don’t have enough data yet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Alun‏ @gamblinglamb Mar 4
      Replying to @Grange95

      That's sort of unconnected to the point I am making though. You're saying it could vary wildly in any direction. I agree. But to rely on the safety of a low death rate, but ignore the high hospitalisation rate from the same data set is not smart.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Grange‏ @Grange95 Mar 4
      Replying to @gamblinglamb

      Try looking at it like this: When you say 40% hospitalization rate, 40% of what group? All infections? Infections detected? Infections requiring medical attention? The way you use the stat implies 40% of all people infected, but that’s almost certainly wrong on the high side.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Grange‏ @Grange95 Mar 4
      Replying to @Grange95 @gamblinglamb

      “Officials have struggled to find an accurate count of the death rate because many people with mild cases don't show symptoms and may not seek treatment.”https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html …

      4:29 AM - 4 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alun‏ @gamblinglamb Mar 4
          Replying to @Grange95

          We're talking at crossed purposes here I think. You're talking about the pyramid that dilutes the theoretical rates, I'm talking about % at the top of it. Let's say the % of cases that have noticeable symptoms is just 10%. But 40% of those are hospitalised. That is a lot!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Grange‏ @Grange95 Mar 4
          Replying to @gamblinglamb

          This is why the uncertainty re number of infections makes it hard to gauge severity. If 50% v. 10% of cases are known, then applying the 40% hospitalization rate (itself problematic) means 20% v. 4% of cases are severe enough to require hospitalization.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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