Also genuinely interested to know for those that voted “even chop” (currently 29%) why they think that is a fair option?https://twitter.com/SavagePoker/status/1029905621624082433 …
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Replying to @SavagePoker
1/ There is no “fair” way to divide a prize pool in these circumstances. The real question is whether there is a reasonable basis for anything other than an equal division of the prize pool among remaining players.
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Replying to @Grange95 @SavagePoker
2/ In other words, can you make a case that Day 1 finish in a multi day tourney is strongly correlated with final finish? Or is the game too volatile?
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Replying to @Grange95 @SavagePoker
3/ I looked at this a few years back after the Borgata poker tourney cheating scandal. If you look at WSOP tourney results, final table players rarely are big stacks in Day 1 or 2.
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Replying to @Grange95 @SavagePoker
4/ Day 1 results are probably much more a result of short term variance—a good run of cards. There probably is some advantage the bigger stacks have that could be quantified by an actuary with a large data set, but I suspect ICM/chip chop methods break down in this situation.
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Replying to @Grange95 @SavagePoker
5/ I’m thinking about this as a lawyer and insurance exec. From a legal frame, I’d view a chip chop as too speculative in these circumstances. As an insurance exec, I’d question the validity of a chip chop model in these circumstances. But ...
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Replying to @Grange95 @SavagePoker
6/ Ultimately you have to decide as a poker tourney director. You can’t run out the tourney, so there is no “correct” answer. All you can do is try for a reasonably fair result. A strong argument can be made that players eliminated have no claim to the prize pool.
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7/ For the remaining players, you can’t make them all happy. An even chop is more fair than indulging the fiction that Day 1 results have any connection to final results. But as a tourney director, YMMV. Headaches like this are why you get paid the big bucks. 
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Replying to @Grange95 @SavagePoker
I'd like to bet that there's a correlation between end-of-Day-1 chip counts and the final results, but I don't want to be the one who does the statistical analysis.
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