Also genuinely interested to know for those that voted “even chop” (currently 29%) why they think that is a fair option?https://twitter.com/SavagePoker/status/1029905621624082433 …
4/ Day 1 results are probably much more a result of short term variance—a good run of cards. There probably is some advantage the bigger stacks have that could be quantified by an actuary with a large data set, but I suspect ICM/chip chop methods break down in this situation.
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5/ I’m thinking about this as a lawyer and insurance exec. From a legal frame, I’d view a chip chop as too speculative in these circumstances. As an insurance exec, I’d question the validity of a chip chop model in these circumstances. But ...
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6/ Ultimately you have to decide as a poker tourney director. You can’t run out the tourney, so there is no “correct” answer. All you can do is try for a reasonably fair result. A strong argument can be made that players eliminated have no claim to the prize pool.
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