Also genuinely interested to know for those that voted “even chop” (currently 29%) why they think that is a fair option?https://twitter.com/SavagePoker/status/1029905621624082433 …
2/ In other words, can you make a case that Day 1 finish in a multi day tourney is strongly correlated with final finish? Or is the game too volatile?
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3/ I looked at this a few years back after the Borgata poker tourney cheating scandal. If you look at WSOP tourney results, final table players rarely are big stacks in Day 1 or 2.
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4/ Day 1 results are probably much more a result of short term variance—a good run of cards. There probably is some advantage the bigger stacks have that could be quantified by an actuary with a large data set, but I suspect ICM/chip chop methods break down in this situation.
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