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GoodwinMJ's profile
Matthew Goodwin
Matthew Goodwin
Matthew Goodwin
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@GoodwinMJ

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Matthew GoodwinVerified account

@GoodwinMJ

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07929045857
matthewjgoodwin.org/about.html
Joined May 2009

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    Matthew Goodwin‏Verified account @GoodwinMJ Sep 9

    A few reflections on Sweden's exit polls 1. The centre-left Social democrats average 25.8% in exit polls -this would be their lowest vote for more than a century (since 1908). The decline of social democracy in Europe continues #val2018 #SwedenElectionpic.twitter.com/XR8QrlMNNu

    11:17 AM - 9 Sep 2018
    • 185 Retweets
    • 207 Likes
    • PAMU 🎮Franxxfurt 🐄 ❌2ttee❌ pyewackett_mike Boudewijn Steur Cristiano Becker Madalina Vicari Mountain Monk D barclay
    19 replies 185 retweets 207 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Matthew Goodwin‏Verified account @GoodwinMJ Sep 9

        2. The national populist Sweden Democrats average 17.8% in the exit polls. This would be their best result on record (+4.9 pts on the last election) and is broadly in line with the dip in their support picked up in polls during final week of campaign #val2018

        1 reply 24 retweets 37 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Matthew Goodwin‏Verified account @GoodwinMJ Sep 9

        3. It's worth reflecting on fact that national populists look set for a 2nd or 3rd place finish amid an economy that has comparatively decent growth, low unemployment & some of the highest living standards in the Western world #val2018

        9 replies 52 retweets 66 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Matthew Goodwin‏Verified account @GoodwinMJ Sep 9

        Matthew Goodwin Retweeted Matthew Goodwin

        4. Two 'big' parties averaging 43.6% in exit polls -broadly consistent with polls and my pre-election thread pointing to how the main parties are being squeezed #val2018 #SwedenElectionhttps://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1038041278926204928 …

        Matthew Goodwin added,

        Matthew GoodwinVerified account @GoodwinMJ
        How the mainstream is being squeezed % of vote for Sweden's 2 main parties 1976-2018 1976 67% 1979 63% 1982 69% 1985 68% 1988 61% 1991 60% 1994 67% 1998 59% 2002 55% 2006 61% 2010 61% 2014 54% 2018 42% < if polls are right
        Show this thread
        2 replies 9 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Matthew Goodwin‏Verified account @GoodwinMJ Sep 9

        5. Compared to last election, & again taking average of exit polls, most but not all of smaller parties -Left Party, Christian Democrats, Centre & liberal- are up a few points. This again points to fragmentation, a story playing out in many other democracies in Europe #val2018

        3 replies 15 retweets 27 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Gareth‏ @garethhunt01 Sep 9
        Replying to @GoodwinMJ

        The strange death of centre-left politics...

        3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Ozan Korman Tarman‏ @ozanktarman Sep 9
        Replying to @garethhunt01 @GoodwinMJ

        Not of Left necessarily though. Demise of “neoliberalism center” for sure

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Gareth‏ @garethhunt01 Sep 9
        Replying to @ozanktarman @GoodwinMJ

        I'll agree that Third Way social democratic politics is dead. However, the centre left exists regardless of "Neoliberalism", "Blairism" or whatever other term used in popular discourse. It could be argued that Paul Mason is the Corbynite centre-left politico of our age.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. Ozan Korman Tarman‏ @ozanktarman Sep 9
        Replying to @garethhunt01 @GoodwinMJ

        I hear you. Left or Center Left both much more “home” for me than “the other side” 😉

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Snow Freethinker‏ @SnowFreeThinker Sep 9
        Replying to @GoodwinMJ @toadmeister

        Too little, too late to save Sweden IMO.

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      3. CSS‏ @TashaCSS Sep 10
        Replying to @SnowFreeThinker @GoodwinMJ @toadmeister

        The colonization of Sweden by the third world muslim migrants is underway. No go zones; rampant crime by those from a barbaric 7th century culture. It is too bad the Sweden Democrats did not win outright & do something to deport these people & restore Sweden to it's greatness.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Shadz‏ @Shadz66Shadz6t6 Sep 10
        Replying to @TashaCSS

        What d'U>TCSS really think of clients of CSS & healthcare professionals who come from those parts of the world that U hate so much? Do ppl just arrive in Sweden w/o any control? Why are #Sweden, #Germany etc. allowing ppl in? What does a <2.1 Fertility Rate mean? @CSS_Healthcarepic.twitter.com/k7mRz16kwU

        1 reply 2 retweets 0 likes
      5. Shadz‏ @Shadz66Shadz6t6 Sep 10
        Replying to @Shadz66Shadz6t6 @TashaCSS @CSS_Healthcare

        Consider "The colonization of #Sweden by the third world muslim migrants" is actually a very prejudiced & poisonous way to describe the movement of peoples after Imperial Wars. Ppl from #Afghanistan #Iraq #Libya #Syria #Yemen'd rather live in peace at home but U know, thanx #USA!pic.twitter.com/DSs49ZrWNU

        1 reply 2 retweets 0 likes
      6. Shadz‏ @Shadz66Shadz6t6 Sep 10
        Replying to @Shadz66Shadz6t6 @TashaCSS @CSS_Healthcare

        Keep spreading your semi-anonymous poison Natasha from CSS Inc. BUT don't presume that there are no private consequences for expressions of hatefulness & ignorance on Public #Twitter. Your employers or ppl of #Denver etc., may not care about your views but #Karma Does! Good Luck.pic.twitter.com/LAeRhTvtit

        0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. Paul Lam‏ @realpaulincoln Sep 9
        Replying to @GoodwinMJ

        Migration is the main issue. Voters reject unlimited migrants enter the nation massively. And the Social Democrats lost fewer votes after they change their migration policies. If they don't change their current migrant policies, they would lose more votes to the Sweden Democrats.

        0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Marti On Bass‏ @MartiOnBass Sep 9
        Replying to @GoodwinMJ @Ohdearbritain

        I'd argue that neoliberalism being the centre of the left is a falsehood Here in the UK the Corbyn left that I believe follows the enlightened left in the Nordic countries is the real centre. Those with a leftward lean are tired of neoliberalism, it does nothing for the people.

        2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Nigel Currie‏ @NCurrie8 Sep 9
        Replying to @MartiOnBass @GoodwinMJ @Ohdearbritain

        Yet, sadly for you, you don't get to define where the centre ground is.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Kasper‏ @159753257456 Sep 9
        Replying to @GoodwinMJ

        lol shut up and wait for a real result like the rest of us, bro. You don't have to try so hard for retweets

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Paul Budding: Freelance Academic Researcher‏ @Paul_Researcher Sep 9
        Replying to @159753257456 @GoodwinMJ

        I am a Social Democrat but I rate Matthew Goodwin's research. There's no escaping the trend that goes way beyond just the UK and U.S. And I really am a Soc Dem. I advocate UBI, tougher punishments for homophobic and racist abuse, an NHS funded at average West European levels.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. Kasper‏ @159753257456 Sep 9
        Replying to @Paul_Researcher @GoodwinMJ

        "Research" here meaning he follows @EuropeElects like the rest of us

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Hyperborean Klaus  🏴 ☠️‏ @YourUncleKlaus Sep 9
        Replying to @GoodwinMJ

        SD should have been even higher. Sweden has a very strange voting system that is not really anonymous like in the US.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. End of conversation

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