Griddy

Geesh

I don't know... looks like that's still a 6% reserve margin, even with the uncertainty in their projections...not exactly something to have your hair on fire about. Maybe Panda Temple can actually make some money this summer.

I don't follow your math here, ERCOT's extreme case is a negative number, indicating system failure. Once you get below ~2 GW of reserve, one nuclear plant trip can crash the system

I only briefly looked at the Exec Sum in the ERCOT document, which I see now didn't include the extreme case... 77,568 MW total capacity, 72,974 MW summer peak load forecast, so 6,000 MW reserve margin (plus another 2,3000 MW of "additional capacity?)

Yep, but that is the "pure" reserve margin. When you add in expected/normal maintenance and forced outages, its only 553 MW above forecast demand. Any high outage/low wind/high load scenario pushes it over, even with the 2.3 GW of "reserve" load response

Since he offered such in-depth thoughts about it in Ep. 64, I wonder if @EricGimon has any thoughts here re: the potential for the ORDC and energy-only market to save the day. I also wonder if the demand-side potential has been adequately examined in this scenario?

Good?s. Demand response does worse in energy only markets than isos with capacity markets. Capacity payments adequately compensate DR for their capacity contribution whereas eo markets only value the energy value, which is not large enough to incent lots of DR

DR in ERCOT is a murky subject, as a lot of it is “passive” involving entities trying to avoid 4CP demand charges. So there is a lot of DR capacity that doesn’t show up in the CDR. Price spikes this summer should incentivize more. Very curious to see how it plays out.