How could The Man in the Red Velvet Swing not have a swing? I thought it would be wider.
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And the exceptions are AZ, GA, and FL, and the ways that they moved are all continuations of the way they moved from 2016 to 2018 - bluer for AZ/GA, and redder for FL.
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About a year ago I was wondering if 2012 rules might apply, where the Incumnbent just does somewhat worse across the board. It's starting to look like that happened - its just that Obama had way more wiggle room to lose voters
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Hopefully that doesn't happen in 2024 though. I think the economy should be stronger in 2024 than it was in 2012 or 2020 which could make the incumbent more popular.
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It’s crazy to think that the past four years were only able to change the minds of one in every thirty people.
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Possibly fewer, seeing as turnout went up
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Promise you rural red Mi, is pretty disgusted about these election complaints & covid. Any tolerance for trumps clown show is fast eroding. They run for local office. Pride themselves in election integrity
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But, what if it's not sustained across the board?
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It's informally called "the Bannon Line". Bannon said if Dems could peel off 4% of votes from 2016 Trump voting Republicans, Biden would win. That's what the Lincoln Project were doing. It worked.
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Starting to think Trump only moved to Florida so he could say he won his home state
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