I had a look at the study (here http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167629617304551 …), and it was a massive headache to unpick exactly what they did, but some thoughtshttps://twitter.com/DrJenGunter/status/869672560702529536 …
After this, the authors tested the reliability of their model using a long list of interesting tests
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They tested whether ring-fencing the funding for education made a difference, whether pre-2008 decreases in conception rate did...
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... looking only at regions (rather than specific councils), and on and on. And sure enough, expenditure stayed significant
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