First off; the reason I'm despairing. Media coverage on a big observational study of stroke/dementia and diet drink consumptionpic.twitter.com/j8IeRzBBVd
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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First off; the reason I'm despairing. Media coverage on a big observational study of stroke/dementia and diet drink consumptionpic.twitter.com/j8IeRzBBVd
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
So, everyone I know is now freaking out that if they drink diet drinks they'll have a stroke or get dementiahttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/857091846438367232 …
Health Nerd added,
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
And that's because every article you read on the subject gets it wrong. Very unsurprising.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/857091846438367232 …
Health Nerd added,
This isn't new. From the Pill to ibuprofen, every time a large observational study comes out, the media goes wild https://medium.com/@gidmk/why-is-the-pill-so-depressing-1b429d271d33 …
And yet not a single media outlet identifies these as observational. Ever. They act as if these are perfect proof of causation.
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
This is the first huge problem; YOU CAN'T PROVE CAUSATION WITH AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDYhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/857091846438367232 …
Health Nerd added,
You can get a huge amount of information, and with successive studies you can get a very good idea of causation, but one study?
After this we have the tired old canards of shoddy reporting; poor understanding of risk ratios, over-reliance on p-values etc
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
In this particular study's case, there WAS no effect of diet drinks on dementia. All the articles were wronghttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/857092472379506688 …
Health Nerd added,
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
When the authors controlled for other risks (such as diabetes), the significance disappearedhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/857092472379506688 …
Health Nerd added,
That leaves us with stroke, for which the authors did find a significant association with diet drinks
And whilst this is interesting, there was sufficient information in their study to infer that it wasn't actually due to the diet drinks
For example, the authors didn't control for BMI (even though they had this information), but BMI was higher in diet drinkers
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