Only if it's all random noise. Even the weakest confounders or measurement problems would bury such a tiny effect.
You can quite easily determine the fault that causes a battery to blow up; a brain, not so much.
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You can easily determine that the moment you started taking the pill your mood changed. Others can observe behaviour change.
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There are well-documented mood altering effects of Chantix, but we are talking suicide rates.
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