11/n One way to think about this disparity is to simply equalize the denominators. We could do this by calculating the 120-day risk of CAE following vaccination for males aged 16-17 in the United Statespic.twitter.com/imxA8oxaxd
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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11/n One way to think about this disparity is to simply equalize the denominators. We could do this by calculating the 120-day risk of CAE following vaccination for males aged 16-17 in the United Statespic.twitter.com/imxA8oxaxd
12/n Based on the numbers in table 1, that would be 110 total events (doses 1+2), and a population of about 3 million, so very crudely 37 CAEs per 120 days This is lower than most of the calculated rates of COVID-19 related admissions in the paperpic.twitter.com/jLTkc744BI
13/n Alternatively, we could compare the risk having a CAE after vaccination with the risk of hospitalization for kids per INFECTION Fortunately, there's already a great resource for doing this in a recent preprint https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …pic.twitter.com/7CBupMZGmT
14/n From this preprint, the likelihood that a child aged 16-17 will experience an infection severe enough to warrant hospitalization is about 1 in 500, and the risk of needing ICU is about 1 in 4,000
15/n So might reasonably compare the risk of 94-168 CAEs per million vaccinations posited by this paper with the risk of 2,400 hospitalizations expected per million infections with COVID-19
16/n Now, it is worth noting that this assumes that the risk of eventually contracting COVID-19 is 100% for children who are not vaccinated, however as time moves on that is not, I think, entirely unreasonable
Something worth considering when making that argument with 100% is that it assumes there will be no other vaccine (or possibly dosage regime?) available in the future without the risk of myocarditis
This was a common problem with people doing these type of calculations with the AstraZeneca vaccine. The options then (in Europe) was AZ now or Pfizer/Moderna in 2-3months later yet a lot of comparisons was just risk with covid-19 vs risk from the AE from astrazeneca
Sure, but that's just me following the lead of the authors. The risk seems to be largely for the second dose, but is that similar if you used two different vaccines? What if the second dose was not mRNA?
I like how Norway handled this. They are giving one dose to kids 12-15 until the data is clearer and then if they find it necessary the can give them all another dose fast and don't have to wait the 8-10w between doses used in the Nordic countries https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2021/12-15-year-olds-will-be-offered-coronavirus-vaccination/ …pic.twitter.com/tKEXPaIz3V
With the higher infectiousness/severity of Delta, that seems to be a compromise that doesn't necessarily improve the situation very much. Complex issue
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