7/n In other words, it's not the likelihood of experiencing a post-vaccination CAE, but the likelihood of having a post-vaccination REPORT of a CAE per million children
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8/n This may sound like needless pedantry, but it isn't - media reporting and attention are a known confounder of passive reporting systems like VAERS. If you have a lot of news articles, you get more reports, even if those are not actually linked to the vaccinespic.twitter.com/J0qqHR2zP3
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9/n And it's interesting to note that, as the authors point out, the CDC (who use much more detailed information to calculate these rates) have a lower estimate of post-vaccine CAE than this preprintpic.twitter.com/NDesrnJ6jM
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10/n The second point that confuses me about the paper as it currently stands is comparing two numbers with very different denominators: 1. events per 1mil vaccines 2. events per 1mil children per 120 dayspic.twitter.com/KLl4a5qgbq
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11/n One way to think about this disparity is to simply equalize the denominators. We could do this by calculating the 120-day risk of CAE following vaccination for males aged 16-17 in the United Statespic.twitter.com/imxA8oxaxd
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12/n Based on the numbers in table 1, that would be 110 total events (doses 1+2), and a population of about 3 million, so very crudely 37 CAEs per 120 days This is lower than most of the calculated rates of COVID-19 related admissions in the paperpic.twitter.com/jLTkc744BI
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13/n Alternatively, we could compare the risk having a CAE after vaccination with the risk of hospitalization for kids per INFECTION Fortunately, there's already a great resource for doing this in a recent preprint https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …pic.twitter.com/7CBupMZGmT
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14/n From this preprint, the likelihood that a child aged 16-17 will experience an infection severe enough to warrant hospitalization is about 1 in 500, and the risk of needing ICU is about 1 in 4,000
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Replying to @GidMK
Thanks for your analysis. We were actually looking at the chance of hospitalization per capita, not infection. The preprint you provided with infection-hospitalization rates is very useful. We had been looking for a good estimate based on seroprev. We can add to the paper
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Replying to @TracyBethHoeg @GidMK
That will allow us to more accurately compare vax risk to overall covid hosp risk. Much appreciated.
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But if you're looking at chance of hospitalization per capita, why compare to chance of CAE per vaccination? I'd want at least the denominators to match there, otherwise the comparison doesn't make sense to me
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Replying to @GidMK @TracyBethHoeg
Yes, the direct comparison of interest is to have both from the treatment base - i.e. vaccinated versus infected. I’d love to see the symptom %s for infection versus vaccine ideally.
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