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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      7/n In other words, it's not the likelihood of experiencing a post-vaccination CAE, but the likelihood of having a post-vaccination REPORT of a CAE per million children

      2 replies 5 retweets 90 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      8/n This may sound like needless pedantry, but it isn't - media reporting and attention are a known confounder of passive reporting systems like VAERS. If you have a lot of news articles, you get more reports, even if those are not actually linked to the vaccinespic.twitter.com/J0qqHR2zP3

      1 reply 5 retweets 92 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      9/n And it's interesting to note that, as the authors point out, the CDC (who use much more detailed information to calculate these rates) have a lower estimate of post-vaccine CAE than this preprintpic.twitter.com/NDesrnJ6jM

      4 replies 7 retweets 89 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      10/n The second point that confuses me about the paper as it currently stands is comparing two numbers with very different denominators: 1. events per 1mil vaccines 2. events per 1mil children per 120 dayspic.twitter.com/KLl4a5qgbq

      2 replies 5 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      11/n One way to think about this disparity is to simply equalize the denominators. We could do this by calculating the 120-day risk of CAE following vaccination for males aged 16-17 in the United Statespic.twitter.com/imxA8oxaxd

      1 reply 1 retweet 46 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      12/n Based on the numbers in table 1, that would be 110 total events (doses 1+2), and a population of about 3 million, so very crudely 37 CAEs per 120 days This is lower than most of the calculated rates of COVID-19 related admissions in the paperpic.twitter.com/jLTkc744BI

      1 reply 1 retweet 56 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      13/n Alternatively, we could compare the risk having a CAE after vaccination with the risk of hospitalization for kids per INFECTION Fortunately, there's already a great resource for doing this in a recent preprint https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …pic.twitter.com/7CBupMZGmT

      1 reply 5 retweets 63 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      14/n From this preprint, the likelihood that a child aged 16-17 will experience an infection severe enough to warrant hospitalization is about 1 in 500, and the risk of needing ICU is about 1 in 4,000

      2 replies 7 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      15/n So might reasonably compare the risk of 94-168 CAEs per million vaccinations posited by this paper with the risk of 2,400 hospitalizations expected per million infections with COVID-19

      1 reply 8 retweets 65 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      16/n Now, it is worth noting that this assumes that the risk of eventually contracting COVID-19 is 100% for children who are not vaccinated, however as time moves on that is not, I think, entirely unreasonable

      3 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      17/n I think weighing the competing risks of vaccination vs infection is a very challenging thing to do, so I commend the authors on the preprint. I think these might be things to consider when updating it for future versions

      7:29 PM - 12 Sep 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 51 Likes
      • Michelle Petterson💉💉 Kel notter Scott Myers Nicholas D. Limbong Hinnack69 Patrick Rachelle D Greg Gransden Nicole Tay
      3 replies 3 retweets 51 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          18/n That being said, I'm not sure I agree that this preprint shows vaccination to be riskier than immunization for these age groups/genders. Not an easy question to answer!

          7 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          Health Nerd Retweeted Dan Freedman, DO

          19/n This piece from @dfreedman7 is a fairly startling addition to the discussion. The implication appears to be that even the basic case definition the authors used was entirely useless, which is less than idealhttps://twitter.com/dfreedman7/status/1437229791380443139?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Dan Freedman, DO @dfreedman7
          Bombshell defused. https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-of-a-vaers-dumpster-dive/ …
          10 replies 6 retweets 61 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. Jonathan Howard‏ @JHowardBrainMD Sep 12
          Replying to @GidMK

          There are other issues though. If you read through the cases not all sound like vaccine myocarditis.https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-of-a-vaers-dumpster-dive/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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