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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      Health Nerd Retweeted Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

      This preprint looking at the risk of vaccine-related side-effects vs COVID-19 infections for children has received a lot of attention, and people have been asking my opinions on it. So, a few thoughts 1/nhttps://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1435796377188003841 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD @TracyBethHoeg
      Our group's analysis of pediatric post-vax myocarditis rates stratified by age, sex & dose. An extensive harm-benefit analysis is included w/consideration of presence or absence of comorbidities Thanks @drjohnm @KrugAlli & @ifihadastick for the teamwork https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1 …
      Show this thread
      19 replies 103 retweets 332 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      2/n The preprint itself is pretty simple - comparing the calculated risk per million vaccines of having a VAERS report consistent with myo/pericarditis (CAE) with the number of COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 children aged 12-17pic.twitter.com/GNNIIoMKpN

      2 replies 3 retweets 40 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      3/n The authors found that the rate of VAERS reports consistent with myocarditis was higher than the average rate of COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 children in a population where there was a reasonably high current prevalence of COVID-19pic.twitter.com/YOZlowjHli

      1 reply 5 retweets 40 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      4/n To think about this, it's important to note what VAERS is - it is a passive reporting system (the acronym stands for Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) that anyone can enter in a report to https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html …pic.twitter.com/myecclv3t2

      1 reply 3 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      5/n Because this system is designed to be sensitive and pick up even quite rare harms, there are some caveats, most notably that (as the CDC points out) you cannot determine whether a vaccine caused a specific issue from VAERS alonepic.twitter.com/CJyMlhWmsU

      2 replies 5 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      6/n So I'm a bit confused by the terminology here. As far as I can see, the authors have relied entirely on VAERS to determine case figures, which the sources they reference point out cannot be considered a causal linkpic.twitter.com/9SLwxvigoA

      2 replies 8 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      7/n In other words, it's not the likelihood of experiencing a post-vaccination CAE, but the likelihood of having a post-vaccination REPORT of a CAE per million children

      2 replies 5 retweets 90 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      8/n This may sound like needless pedantry, but it isn't - media reporting and attention are a known confounder of passive reporting systems like VAERS. If you have a lot of news articles, you get more reports, even if those are not actually linked to the vaccinespic.twitter.com/J0qqHR2zP3

      1 reply 5 retweets 92 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      9/n And it's interesting to note that, as the authors point out, the CDC (who use much more detailed information to calculate these rates) have a lower estimate of post-vaccine CAE than this preprintpic.twitter.com/NDesrnJ6jM

      4 replies 7 retweets 89 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      10/n The second point that confuses me about the paper as it currently stands is comparing two numbers with very different denominators: 1. events per 1mil vaccines 2. events per 1mil children per 120 dayspic.twitter.com/KLl4a5qgbq

      2 replies 5 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

      11/n One way to think about this disparity is to simply equalize the denominators. We could do this by calculating the 120-day risk of CAE following vaccination for males aged 16-17 in the United Statespic.twitter.com/imxA8oxaxd

      7:29 PM - 12 Sep 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 46 Likes
      • Paula Clemente Scott Myers Brussels cyclo-pedestrian Steven B Hinnack69 Rachelle D Core de Greg Gransden JP
      1 reply 1 retweet 46 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          12/n Based on the numbers in table 1, that would be 110 total events (doses 1+2), and a population of about 3 million, so very crudely 37 CAEs per 120 days This is lower than most of the calculated rates of COVID-19 related admissions in the paperpic.twitter.com/jLTkc744BI

          1 reply 1 retweet 56 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          13/n Alternatively, we could compare the risk having a CAE after vaccination with the risk of hospitalization for kids per INFECTION Fortunately, there's already a great resource for doing this in a recent preprint https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …pic.twitter.com/7CBupMZGmT

          1 reply 5 retweets 63 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          14/n From this preprint, the likelihood that a child aged 16-17 will experience an infection severe enough to warrant hospitalization is about 1 in 500, and the risk of needing ICU is about 1 in 4,000

          2 replies 7 retweets 57 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          15/n So might reasonably compare the risk of 94-168 CAEs per million vaccinations posited by this paper with the risk of 2,400 hospitalizations expected per million infections with COVID-19

          1 reply 8 retweets 65 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          16/n Now, it is worth noting that this assumes that the risk of eventually contracting COVID-19 is 100% for children who are not vaccinated, however as time moves on that is not, I think, entirely unreasonable

          3 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          17/n I think weighing the competing risks of vaccination vs infection is a very challenging thing to do, so I commend the authors on the preprint. I think these might be things to consider when updating it for future versions

          3 replies 3 retweets 51 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          18/n That being said, I'm not sure I agree that this preprint shows vaccination to be riskier than immunization for these age groups/genders. Not an easy question to answer!

          7 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 12

          Health Nerd Retweeted Dan Freedman, DO

          19/n This piece from @dfreedman7 is a fairly startling addition to the discussion. The implication appears to be that even the basic case definition the authors used was entirely useless, which is less than idealhttps://twitter.com/dfreedman7/status/1437229791380443139?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Dan Freedman, DO @dfreedman7
          Bombshell defused. https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-of-a-vaers-dumpster-dive/ …
          10 replies 6 retweets 61 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation

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