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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Tara Moriarty‏Verified account @MoriartyLab Sep 10

      Based on vaccination rates over the last 7 days here are: Dates when <5 new deaths/100K people would be expected for the rest of the COVID-19 epidemic (i.e. low risk): QC, PEI: Nov/21 MB: Dec/21 NL: Jan/22 BC, NS: Feb/22 NB: Mar/22 ON: Aug/22 AB, SK, NWT, YK, NUV: min Dec/22pic.twitter.com/U7fO0qcNVR

      8 replies 30 retweets 59 likes
    2. Datafreak‏ @LoewenOf Sep 10
      Replying to @MoriartyLab

      RE:"<5 new deaths/100K" I'm very confused about your data, or maybe it's the units? Here's the (smoothed) daily CV19 deaths/100k for the last 6 months. Most provinces have never exceeded 0.5 deaths/100k/day let alone "5 new deaths/100K"pic.twitter.com/KQ0NeTGNCO

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Tara Moriarty‏Verified account @MoriartyLab Sep 11
      Replying to @LoewenOf

      The calculations are an attempt to estimate how many total deaths we can expect in the whole epidemic and when we'll have enough people vaccinated that only an additional 5 deaths/100k people are likely to occur before the epidemic stops being a major cause of death.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Tara Moriarty‏Verified account @MoriartyLab Sep 11
      Replying to @MoriartyLab @LoewenOf

      In a reply to @AndreBeltempo I explained the calculations. They're based on age-specific infection fatality rates, the baseline % of complete vaccination in each age group and region as of Sep 4, plus how fast we're vaccinating in each age group (in week of Aug 28-Sep 4).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Datafreak‏ @LoewenOf Sep 11
      Replying to @MoriartyLab @AndreBeltempo

      What IFR estimates are you using? The most cited source I find is this meta study with VERY wide ranges for elderly and near zero values for ages <45: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/ …pic.twitter.com/fxdXPVfFw8

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Sep 11
      Replying to @LoewenOf @MoriartyLab @AndreBeltempo

      Re: "near zero values for ages <45:" I get annoyed as H*ll when contrarians act like @GidMK and @BillHanage's paper shows IFR of "near zero". Ignores many infections = many deaths, fatality rates compared to other causes of death, etc. Read the paper https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 …pic.twitter.com/kodvR4qiLT

      3 replies 1 retweet 1 like
    7. Datafreak‏ @LoewenOf Sep 11
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @MoriartyLab and

      PS. you do realize that's the exact same publication I linked in the tweet you are reply to? doi: 10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Sep 11
      Replying to @LoewenOf @MoriartyLab and

      Atomsk's Sanakan Retweeted Health Nerd

      Re: "PS. you do realize that's the exact same publication I linked in the tweet you are reply to?" Yes, which is why I told you to "Read the paper". 🙄 It's clear you didn't bother to, and are abusing it in just the way the authors warned against.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1390178068866637824 …

      Atomsk's Sanakan added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      As one of the authors of this study, I think it's fair to say that this is not a correct interpretation of the research https://twitter.com/abirballan/status/1373689805867999235 …
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Datafreak‏ @LoewenOf Sep 11
      Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @MoriartyLab and

      The pre-print edition you just linked to, has this wording in the abstract: "The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and younger adults" The final version also agrees with their findings: "The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults"

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 11
      Replying to @LoewenOf @AtomsksSanakan and

      There's a reason we changed that statement, happy to clarify

      3:08 PM - 11 Sep 2021
      • 5 Likes
      • MaxDWolf Ivor Mectin 🇪🇸 Balkrai 🇪🇸 Datafreak Atomsk's Sanakan
      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan Sep 11
          Replying to @GidMK @LoewenOf and

          Re: "There's a reason we changed that statement, happy to clarify" I think I have a pretty good idea of where this is going, and it probably won't end well for the anti-vaxxer... https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1389725097368322049 … https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1389721050993225728 …pic.twitter.com/TQNbSub0cB

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Datafreak‏ @LoewenOf Sep 11
          Replying to @AtomsksSanakan @GidMK and

          since you seem to care a lot about me, I will share with you that myself and family are all vaccinated. I honestly seek truth and perspective. I hope you find it too someday. Peace

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Datafreak‏ @LoewenOf Sep 11
          Replying to @GidMK @AtomsksSanakan and

          Yes! I understand that 0.002% IFR (youngest age bracket) is closer to zero than 15% IFR (oldest age bracket) and that further explicitly listing the calculated findings clarifies the wording.. Table 3 shows perspective: USA <35 fatalities from cars are >3X more likely than covid

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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