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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

      This letter has been published in the AJT, claiming that a) The Elgazzar study is not withdrawn b) Even if it is, this makes no difference to meta-analyses of ivermectin Some thoughts about why this is very misleading and/or simply wrong 1/n https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1435642777757523969?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/jb8zMyeFML

      11 replies 57 retweets 114 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

      2/n For the first claim, it is rather fascinating to see the defense that the authors have chosen. As a reminder, most of this study was plagiarized, and the dataset the authors UPLOADED THEMSELVES was fake https://gidmk.medium.com/is-ivermectin-for-covid-19-based-on-fraudulent-research-5cc079278602 …pic.twitter.com/U0w45eyulk

      2 replies 5 retweets 36 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

      3/n Even if you dislike me personally for whatever reason, several independent experts on fraud confirmed that this data cannot possibly have come from a real RCT i.e. https://steamtraen.blogspot.com/2021/07/Some-problems-with-the-data-from-a-Covid-study.html …

      2 replies 4 retweets 34 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

      4/n It's not really a matter of "independent adjudication" being an issue - the study has been independently adjudicated, and the only response from the authors has been to claim that the data they said was their data isn't really, and then go silent

      10:39 PM - 8 Sep 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 24 Likes
      • Kristin Sainani Paul T. 💉💉😷 Merkin Muffley Cathryn Townsend, PhD (she/they) Chris Kavanagh Joey Davis Atomsk's Sanakan Charlotte Arek
      1 reply 3 retweets 24 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          5/n As to whether this impacts the meta-analyses of ivermectin: obviously it has a large impact This was THE LARGEST STUDY included in the analysis in question. It is clear that it made a BIG difference

          2 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          6/n The authors have re-run their model, and come up with this substantially modified forest plot They say "Hence, the leading outcome conclusions (ie, for mortality and prophylaxis) are robust to the removal of the study by Elgazzar,3 contrary to the press claims"pic.twitter.com/dz52Lz7Khz

          1 reply 2 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

          7/n But this isn't scientific. They haven't rerun the actual study, they've just run one model excluding Elgazzar I noted this issue in a thread AGES agohttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1416290862724644867?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
          14/n So, Step 4: Sensitivity Analysis Rerunning the original model excluding both Elgazzar and Niaee gives you this result Absolutely no benefit for ivermectin on mortality. CIs include both large benefit and large detriment pic.twitter.com/tVKlmxJgpp
          Show this thread
          2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          8/n It's a HUGE issue for a very simple reason - once you've gotten rid of the likely fraudulent Elgazzar trial, the ENTIRE MORTALITY BENEFIT comes from one very bad trial This means that even the most basic sensitivity analysis removes the effect entirely

          5 replies 4 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          9/n So when the authors say that the "leading outcome conclusions" remain unchanged, they are factually mistaken. Indeed, it appears that their entire result now relies on a single study with very substantial issues

          3 replies 3 retweets 28 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          10/n Whether or not this means that you can still get a marginally statistically significant result in your model, it means that the certainty of that result is ENORMOUSLY downgraded, and thus the conclusions (below) are clearly reversedpic.twitter.com/4jptUFo9hw

          1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          11/n The Niaee trial is worrisome in particular because, despite numerous efforts, the authors have refused to share any data with either myself or @K_Sheldrick At this point, that's a huge red flag

          2 replies 4 retweets 31 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          12/n Finally, I will note that the letter is also rather poorly timed, as just this morning we confirmed that another study the authors have included in their analysis is almost certainly fake 🤷‍♂️

          1 reply 5 retweets 40 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          13/n I think the most rigorous scientific step, at this point, is for the authors to revise their actual study I can't imagine leaving a meta-analysis containing likely fraudulent research up as-is myself, but perhaps that's just me

          2 replies 4 retweets 40 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          14/n A minor addition - another letter published alongside this makes a similar argument, but in a moment of what I can only call scientific absurdity includes another trial with serious concerns in the REVISED analysispic.twitter.com/av013wkhR2

          2 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Sep 8

          15/n It's rather, uh, strange to see people arguing that potential fraud has not impacted their results while still including potential fraud You can read about this study here:https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/ivermectin-covid-study-suspect-data …

          5 replies 3 retweets 43 likes
          Show this thread
        13. End of conversation

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