The NSW numbers are really scary, ignore calculated low "R𝑒𝑓𝑓" based on these. Our tests are falling and test positivity ratio is skyrocketing, more than 1% today! Very worrying that this could be the start of testing failure from fatigue rather than underlying cases falling.
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Replying to @K_Sheldrick
Not sure I agree - the test positivity ratio is a bit higher than 2 weeks ago, but the mean number of tests per week (ignoring the two MASSIVE days on 22/23) has remained pretty steady at ~130k
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Replying to @GidMK @K_Sheldrick
And worth noting that the test positivity ratio may not be as reliable an indicator as we'd like, given that LGAs of concern have had regular tests even if individuals were low-risk themselves
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Replying to @GidMK
Perhaps I'm reading too much into yesterday's number being the lowest in weeks, but this is my calculation of last 2 weeks' positivity ratio (in percent).pic.twitter.com/gBjGhWc5yM
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Replying to @K_Sheldrick
That looks about right, the positivity ratio has definitely gone up. However, the number of tests is reasonably similar (maybe a bit higher now) so the tests aren't falling. This could also be reflective of better targeted testing
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Replying to @GidMK
Rolling seven day average. I guess we'll see in a week or so (could be less people requiring surveillance testing going to work?)pic.twitter.com/oDligIctIu
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Replying to @K_Sheldrick
So the only thing is that the 22nd and 23rd were pretty enormous outliers. If you exclude those two days, it's a steady 130ish per day for a while now
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Replying to @GidMK
And yesterday may have been an outlier in terms of low numbers too I guess, could be a backlog that will result in big days later in the week?
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