Victoria! The reff has dropped! Early days but maybe we can stabilise now?https://twitter.com/profesterman/status/1435383259009982472 …
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*I’m not an epidemiologist. But I can listen to people who are.
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Replying to @manjusrii
My personal perspective is that the Reff calculations are wildly uncertain from day to day and that we place far too much emphasis on them. Reff for last Friday is informative, but the number for today has a confidence interval spanning a very wide range
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Replying to @manjusrii
Uncertain hope. Tomorrow's numbers will impact the calculation for today, and if they're higher then clearly there was more transmission than we anticipated. It's a useful model in retrospect, but nowcasting is very tough
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