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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 1

      2/n The semi-anonymous site claims to be a "real-time meta analysis" of all published studies on ivermectin, collating an impressive 60 pieces of research It's flashy, well-designed, and at face value appears very legitimate

      7 replies 32 retweets 401 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 1

      3/n The benefits that this website show for ivermectin are pretty amazing - 96%(!) lower mortality based on 10,797 patients worth of data is quite astonishing. Sounds like we should all be using ivermectin! Except, well, these numbers are totally meaninglesspic.twitter.com/B0rrocOEpS

      7 replies 41 retweets 429 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 1

      4/n Digging into the site, you're immediately hit with this error. That's not how p-values work at all, any stats textbook will show you why this statement is entirely untruepic.twitter.com/Hzb4K1NYaH

      17 replies 49 retweets 555 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Rounding the Earth‏ @EduEngineer Aug 27
      Replying to @GidMK

      Hi, Health Nerd. I'm a statistican and textbook author. I computed the p-value and found the exact answer here. There is nothing about the statement I can see that is incorrect. A p-value is the result of the computation testing to see if a result could occur by random chance.

      3 replies 7 retweets 69 likes
    5. Kyle Sheldrick‏ @K_Sheldrick Aug 27
      Replying to @EduEngineer @GidMK

      Perhaps you're reading in a meaning the author meant to express but didn't. e.g. perhaps they meant to say "a hypothetical ineffective treatment would generate" rather than "an ineffective treatment generated"

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 27
      Replying to @K_Sheldrick @EduEngineer

      It's also worth noting that in the context of this meta-analytic model the p-value is entirely the result of the cherry-picking of "positive" values, so the chance of having a low p-value is 100% regardless of whether ivm works or not

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    7. Kyle Sheldrick‏ @K_Sheldrick Aug 27
      Replying to @GidMK @EduEngineer

      Yeah I mean a quick 5 minute skim will tell you these weren't extracted on the basis of severity.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Rounding the Earth‏ @EduEngineer Aug 27
      Replying to @K_Sheldrick @GidMK

      What does "extracted on the basis of severity" mean?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Kyle Sheldrick‏ @K_Sheldrick Aug 27
      Replying to @EduEngineer @GidMK

      The author (authors?) of the MA claim to have extracted the most serious reported outcome each time rather than cherry picking an outcome which gives a result they like.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Rounding the Earth‏ @EduEngineer Aug 27
      Replying to @K_Sheldrick @GidMK

      This is just a matter of two different interpretations of words. The usual interpretation of "most serious outcome" is "endpoint level", not "which AE we find most terrible". We'd need QALYs for the latter, anyhow.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 27
      Replying to @EduEngineer @K_Sheldrick

      The pseudo-scientific analysis certainly doesn't choose the clinical endpoint pre-specified by the authors of these studies in most cases so I'm not sure what you mean

      11:54 PM - 27 Aug 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Alana Updike Pro: Science, Reason, Planet Kyle Sheldrick
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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