The first test of the Doherty modelling is not at 70% double dosed. If we don't see a bending in locked down NSW's curve by the time full vax rates are more like 50-60%, we have a problem. We're still about a month away from that point.
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Replying to @CaseyBriggs
I agree, but some nuance - the vaccines are counted from the day they're given, but they are only effective from 1-2 weeks afterwards. We would expect to see a bend in the curve 2-3 weeks after the doses are put in arms
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Replying to @GidMK
The Doherty Institute says it has accounted for some people having partial immunity in their modelling of the trigger points
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Replying to @CaseyBriggs
Oh sure, but I just mean the first 'test' isn't the day after vax rates hit the 50s, but 2-3 weeks after *that*
10:21 PM - 22 Aug 2021
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