Can people check my logic? The risk of children dying from COVID is about 1 in a million. The risk of dying from current COVID vaccines is about 1 in a million. What is the logic for vaccinating children?
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Replying to @DrCameronMurray
These statistics are misleading/inaccurate. The risk of dying from the highest-risk COVID-19 vaccination for a 10yo is 1 in a million. The risk of dying from COVID-19 if a 10yo catches it is 1 in 55,000https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …
12 replies 10 retweets 164 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray
Now, the risk for a child of catching COVID-19 in the SHORT TERM is low. However, as you progress towards t

, the risk for any individual of having at least one COVID-19 infection approaches 11 reply 2 retweets 38 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray
So therefore, in the long term it's not unreasonable to compare the risk for a child from a vaccine directly with the risk of COVID-19. And in this case, the risk of a vaccine is far lower than infection
1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray
Moreover, the risks from COVID-19 are not limited to death - the likelihood of a child being hospitalized/ICU admitted due to a COVID-19 infection are orders of magnitude higher than the risk from vaccines for those events
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Replying to @GidMK
So you think there is a 20x benefit conditional on being infected (might be as low as 5x & still be in the plausible range of that study). You think I am right at a population level, but my mistake is to assume every child will not get COVID. But as t->inf kids become adults.
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Replying to @DrCameronMurray
At a population level, it depends on your risk of being infected (which is usually about 30-50% p/y in an unmitigated epidemic) and varies substantially by age - 17yo has a ~3x risk of death compared to 7yo. "Kids" is too granular
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Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray
thanks for linking that original paper - useful. is there something similar for hospitalisation rate?
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Yep - paper here:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …
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