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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Cameron Murray‏ @DrCameronMurray Aug 17

      Can people check my logic? The risk of children dying from COVID is about 1 in a million. The risk of dying from current COVID vaccines is about 1 in a million. What is the logic for vaccinating children?

      96 replies 21 retweets 122 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 17
      Replying to @DrCameronMurray

      These statistics are misleading/inaccurate. The risk of dying from the highest-risk COVID-19 vaccination for a 10yo is 1 in a million. The risk of dying from COVID-19 if a 10yo catches it is 1 in 55,000https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …

      12 replies 10 retweets 164 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 17
      Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray

      Now, the risk for a child of catching COVID-19 in the SHORT TERM is low. However, as you progress towards t➡️♾, the risk for any individual of having at least one COVID-19 infection approaches 1

      1 reply 2 retweets 38 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 17
      Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray

      So therefore, in the long term it's not unreasonable to compare the risk for a child from a vaccine directly with the risk of COVID-19. And in this case, the risk of a vaccine is far lower than infection

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 17
      Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray

      Moreover, the risks from COVID-19 are not limited to death - the likelihood of a child being hospitalized/ICU admitted due to a COVID-19 infection are orders of magnitude higher than the risk from vaccines for those events

      2 replies 1 retweet 24 likes
    6. Cameron Murray‏ @DrCameronMurray Aug 17
      Replying to @GidMK

      So you think there is a 20x benefit conditional on being infected (might be as low as 5x & still be in the plausible range of that study). You think I am right at a population level, but my mistake is to assume every child will not get COVID. But as t->inf kids become adults.

      2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 17
      Replying to @DrCameronMurray

      At a population level, it depends on your risk of being infected (which is usually about 30-50% p/y in an unmitigated epidemic) and varies substantially by age - 17yo has a ~3x risk of death compared to 7yo. "Kids" is too granular

      5:18 PM - 17 Aug 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • Michael Brown Dr Vyom Sharma (ethnic mum) Thurstone Moar III Katherine Pavlovic c0nc0rdance Liz "The Mask Goes Over Your Nose AND Mouth" Ditz
      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 17
          Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray

          Worth noting that any scenario in Australia that includes "reopening" without large-scale interventions will be quite close to an unmitigated epidemic without vaccinations, particularly with more transmissible strains

          1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
        3. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle Aug 17
          Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray

          It also ignores the benefits of stewardship of a world in which COVID risks becoming endemic. Expanding herd immunity to children, and squashing this disease so they're not dealing with it for their rest of their lives is an often unmentioned benefit, as is, fewer dead parents.

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Leigh Roberts‏ @LMR0001 Aug 17
          Replying to @GidMK @DrCameronMurray

          thanks for linking that original paper - useful. is there something similar for hospitalisation rate?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 17
          Replying to @LMR0001 @DrCameronMurray

          Yep - paper here:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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