We've known for some time that COVID-19 is unlikely to be eradicated. This means that the end-goal for any zero-COVID nation should be extremely high rates of vaccination, not permanent eliminationhttps://gidmk.medium.com/the-end-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-b03ac751baa1 …
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You can actually see this in action in Iceland, where more than 75% of the population is vaccinated - despite their biggest outbreak ever, there have been no more new COVID deaths so farpic.twitter.com/NK04BZIur5
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To clarify - when I say "doesn't really matter" I mean that at a POPULATION LEVEL the impact is expected to be quite small. Obviously to the individuals at risk this is a more serious issue, but if we're talking entire countries the calculus is differenthttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1427111223716319233?s=20 …
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Do we have any predictions for where the variants in the coming years will go?
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Absolutely. Once we can get world governments to mutually agree on this, we can tackle the twin challenges of vaccine supply (step up manufacturing, a lot) and demand (mandates).
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This is not a given. Each of the 3-4 previous surges in the US involved on average 10-12% of the population. It takes VE against severe disease to be <90% and a let-it-rip situation (="everyone catches it") to get one of those in place
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Iceland provides rich vax data, but remember they can also contain spread bc IMU every +person (incl asympt) gets assigned an MD and social worker to check in with them daily for 14 days and help them manage their isolation and any symptoms. Concierge healthcare for all.
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It matters to the 5% It matters to the moderate/severe breakthroughs It matters to long haulers It matters to people who like being able to smell things
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There’s no other realistic option left. We aren’t going to eradicate this virus. The best we can do is make morbidity and mortality from it uncommon or outright rare.
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So, you saying there is a de facto eradication but only if we reach high (75%+) number of inoculations (including children). Right ?
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Depends how COVid mutates. Will it mutate naturally so as to not to kill the host or will it mutate against the vaccine and become more virulent? Or perhaps something not anticipated? To my knoweldge, we've never vaccinated the world population against symptoms before.
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