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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 11

      My new piece is an update on ivermectin for Covid-19, and why it's looking less and less likely that ivermectin works at allhttps://gidmk.medium.com/ivermectin-for-covid-19-an-update-5e913bb49483 …

      94 replies 161 retweets 491 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dr Neil T Stacey‏ @NeilTStacey Aug 13
      Replying to @GidMK

      This data is still very much consistent with modest (~10%) benefit, and so it won't remove IVM from clinicians' toolkits.

      3 replies 3 retweets 13 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 13
      Replying to @NeilTStacey

      It is also very much consistent with modest (~10%) harm, and so it definitely should remove ivermectin from any toolkits other than a randomised clinical trial

      3 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
    4. Dr Neil T Stacey‏ @NeilTStacey Aug 13
      Replying to @GidMK

      It's a LOT more consistent with modest benefit than modest harm, so it won't.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 13
      Replying to @NeilTStacey

      Why do you say that?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Dr Neil T Stacey‏ @NeilTStacey Aug 13
      Replying to @GidMK

      Even your own analyses, which are perhaps somewhat skewed toward the result you expect/want, reflect higher probability of benefit than harm, on the balance of probability. A broad CI centered around RR of 0.8 represents a positive Expected Value on the decision to treat

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 13
      Replying to @NeilTStacey

      That's not really true - from a standard NHST point of view, it's pretty similarly likely that the result will be both harmful and beneficial. Moreover, the biggest trial found results consistent with no benefit at all

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Dr Neil T Stacey‏ @NeilTStacey Aug 13
      Replying to @GidMK

      That's just not true. The largest study found results that lie within the bounds of possibility of no benefit, but only just (what's the p-value, like 0.2) - the usual interpretation of such results is NOT "it doesn't work," it's "Needs more data" or "small benefit" (cont)

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 13
      Replying to @NeilTStacey

      That's not true either. The CI including benefit does not make that more likely than the harm also included in the CI, and the potential harm in that study stretched up to very large amounts

      2:40 PM - 13 Aug 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Stephen Vogel
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 13
          Replying to @GidMK @NeilTStacey

          You can't just interpret only the half of the CI that agrees with your opinions, that's a bizarre way to interpret information

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dr Neil T Stacey‏ @NeilTStacey Aug 13
          Replying to @GidMK

          It's not half, though, is it? The bulk of the CI lies on the positive side. Statistically it's roughly in line with rolling a 20-sided die, needing an 8 or better. You shouldn't mock clinicians who take that chance.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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