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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      It is not. Large numbers have no bearing whatsoever on residual confounding

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    2. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

      You're wrong and you know it. The residual confounding have to be enormous to explain the difference, so big that it must be evident and it isn't. Same in Peru, same in Uttar Pradesh India, same in other places. Residual confoundings do explain Together trial result indeed.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      You appear to genuinely have no idea what confounding is. This is a reasonable primer if you're interested in knowing why it's an issue for this analysis but not the Together trial: https://sph.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/112/2015/07/nciph_ERIC11.pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

      Certainly there are residual confounders, but not large enough to even moderately change the results. If so, chances are they will change the results for the better.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      That's simply inaccurate - the residual confounding is likely to impact the results. For example, who is more likely to get tested and then get a pack? Etc

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

      The sicker.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      Nope - epi 101, often socio-economics drive choices like these. Entirely possible that the richer people were both more likely to get a test AND receive a pack. The point is not that this DID happen, but that it could change the results if it had

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    8. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

      You're making assumptions ignoring third world reality. Rich people in Mexico are a small group, they don't go to the public heaths system. They go to private doctors and buy their own drugs.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      Rich is contextual, and in this context is shorthand for "more socio-economically advanced than average"

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    10. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

      You can't explain this 76% improvement with this shaky factors. Plus, the factors can play in both directions. The subsequent improving at national level after rolling out test and treat with ivermectin is another evidence. The CFR improved 5 fold.

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      CFR is largely based on testing numbers, so very unreliable. You can often explain even large differences such as 76% with residual confounding what you're saying is incorrect

      8:59 PM - 12 Aug 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • Scott Myers 🇪🇸 Balkrai 🇪🇸 Atomsk's Sanakan Rotes Reudnitz
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
          Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

          CFR is 80% less, and testing is not the explanation. Testing is very low. Test positivity rate over 40%. CFR is unreliable in the UK indeed. Mass testing school kids twice per week lower the numbers.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
          Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

          In Mexico, daily tests appear to have roughly doubled over the time period of the study. That would usually result in a lower CFR even if there was no effect

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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