Firstly, seasonality would be hard to see on that graph even if it existed. But the main thing about calculating excess mortality is trends, and those aren't all about seasons. Check the work of @ArielKarlinsky if you want to see why that method is not reliable
At this point, that sort of ecological evidence isn't very convincing. There are lots of biases and differences between Mexico and the US, which is the entire point of running clinical trials in the first place
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This discussions always end in the same place: Only a big RCT is valid evidence.
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There are different kinds of evidence - ecological studies are extremely useful for answering certain questions. But in general, if the question can be asked in a way that can be answered by a clinical trial, it is a more robust form of evidence
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