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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      Firstly, seasonality would be hard to see on that graph even if it existed. But the main thing about calculating excess mortality is trends, and those aren't all about seasons. Check the work of @ArielKarlinsky if you want to see why that method is not reliable

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric @ArielKarlinsky

      The increase in deaths due COVID in Peru was enormous. The drop in deaths after the campaigns was real and impossible to ignore. You can't explain this drops in any other way. Want to try?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric @ArielKarlinsky

      That's just a simple attempt to reverse the burden of proof. You say this proves that ivermectin shows a benefit, and I'm saying that argument is not well-supported

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric @ArielKarlinsky

      This is a big leap, from "ivermectin has no benefit for Covid-19 after all" to "I'm saying that argument is not well-supported" 👍

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric @ArielKarlinsky

      Lol, that's just shifting the goalposts to a completely different conversation. You brought up Peru 👍

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric @ArielKarlinsky

      We do have different goals. Yours seem to be purely academic Do you think arguing about methodologies to discredit a life saving treatment is ethical? Do you really believe ivermectin doesn't work?

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      Those are some bizarre leading questions

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

      Do you really believe ivermectin doesn't work? It sounds like you do.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      I think the evidence to date is now fairly good that ivermectin is unlikely to have a large benefit in the treatment of covid. Small benefits are still plausible, and the prophylaxis question is still open, but small harms are also plausible given the evidence

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
      Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

      I greatly disagree, and also believe you'll change your mind soon. Just keep an eye on Mexico. They test and treat with IVM. The testing (and consequent treatment) is insufficient (positivity ~45%) but still is something. You'll see a big difference against US soon.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
      Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

      At this point, that sort of ecological evidence isn't very convincing. There are lots of biases and differences between Mexico and the US, which is the entire point of running clinical trials in the first place

      5:07 PM - 12 Aug 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. J Chamie‏ @jjchamie Aug 12
          Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric

          This discussions always end in the same place: Only a big RCT is valid evidence.

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 12
          Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric

          There are different kinds of evidence - ecological studies are extremely useful for answering certain questions. But in general, if the question can be asked in a way that can be answered by a clinical trial, it is a more robust form of evidence

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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