You seem to be suggesting that anyone who disagrees with you is either incompetent or acting in bad faith, which is a fascinating position to hold
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Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric
I'm not suggesting anything about other people. I'm saying you are ignoring information, and this could be leading your POV This isn't incompetence.
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Replying to @GidMK @EdoajoEric
"Using just two months of mortality data from the Peruvian summer to calculate an excess just doesn't make sense" False Can you see any seasonality here? Fact: Tropical countries don't have seasons. There isn't summer or winter with an increase in deaths.pic.twitter.com/cGLZYRB3Z6
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Replying to @jjchamie @EdoajoEric
Firstly, seasonality would be hard to see on that graph even if it existed. But the main thing about calculating excess mortality is trends, and those aren't all about seasons. Check the work of
@ArielKarlinsky if you want to see why that method is not reliable2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Also, worth noting that this isn't an example of me "ignoring evidence" this is me disagreeing with you. Those are not the same at all
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Your conclusions were based on the wrong info. But not anymore. Distribution timing and huge drops in deaths happened right after. Nothing else happened that could explain it. Do you have any other explanation?
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They didn't happen "right after", and there are numerous explanations. But again, I am not trying to prove some other point, merely saying that YOUR argument is unconvincing
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It's easy to say "there are numerous explanations" without giving a single one. Did you read the paper? https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3765018&download=yes …
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I did indeed. It is similarly very easy to say "Well if I'm wrong tell me what's right" rather than actually trying to prove that your point is correct:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy) …
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I'm not saying I have all the answers, just that I don't think your answer is convincing. These are two very separate concepts
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An entire sub population convinced that all answers are found by applying post hoc ergo propter hoc. Maybe logic should be a high school requirement.
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