(1)I had a really enjoyable and spirited conversation with @GidMK . We see eye to eye on some things, and disagree about others. Yet were able to carry on a pleasant and productive discussion. The dude is a good faith actor who knows his shit and is committed to scientific rigor.
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The list is long. I can start with information you ignore about Peru. "Peru officially authorized the use of ivermectin on May 5th 2020 and started distributing it en mass shortly after" is false. Fact: Peru started a small distrub. in June and a big campaign at the end of July.
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I mean, 4 weeks is pretty short in my book. It also doesn't really change the fundamental issue which is that the analysis has no actual measure of exposure to ivermectin
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"Using just two months of mortality data from the Peruvian summer to calculate an excess just doesn't make sense" False Can you see any seasonality here? Fact: Tropical countries don't have seasons. There isn't summer or winter with an increase in deaths.pic.twitter.com/cGLZYRB3Z6
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Firstly, seasonality would be hard to see on that graph even if it existed. But the main thing about calculating excess mortality is trends, and those aren't all about seasons. Check the work of
@ArielKarlinsky if you want to see why that method is not reliable - Show replies
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"By all indications, the use of ivermectin in Peru was widespread in EVERY region, not just the 'maximal' one" False Up until Feb 2021 almost 70% never taken IVM in Peruhttps://twitter.com/jjchamie/status/1365856703917531136?s=20 …
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Surveys are often fraught with biases, but I'd say that pretty much shows the opposite of your point - 30% of the ENTIRE COUNTRY took ivermectin? 24% as a prophylactic? The govt only provided, what, 1-2mil doses - that's at least 7mil people self-dosing!
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More: It's hard to believe that your are unaware of the ivermectin test in Mexico with 230k people and 76% reduction is hospitalization rate. But anyway, here it ishttps://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/r93g4/ …
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Oh yes I've read that. A very big issue with residual confounding makes it quite hard to interpret, particularly given that there are some numeric errors in the tables
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More: "India's COVID-19 undercount was *always* likely because of systematic issues with death reporting Estimates that the true death toll in India is likely to be 5.5-11x higher" It's political propaganda.
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No that's rather well substantiated at this point. There are several published papers demonstrating the issue, and I've got another coming out quite soon
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