18/n The authors also produced these graphs, and argued that since they were relatively similar that government restrictions against COVID-19 didn't explain the difference in mortality that they sawpic.twitter.com/2ojQMWHrxQ
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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18/n The authors also produced these graphs, and argued that since they were relatively similar that government restrictions against COVID-19 didn't explain the difference in mortality that they sawpic.twitter.com/2ojQMWHrxQ
19/n As far as I can see they didn't actually TEST this possibility - they just eyeballed the graphs, and said they were similar enough But are they?
20/n For example, the graph from Puno is plotted on a different axis to the others, which means that the declines in movement (the coloured lines) are all at least ~10% different to the other placespic.twitter.com/GhGMIt4omb
21/n Also, the "excess" mortality is wildly different between regions, peaking at different times in different places. That's not that similar imo!
22/n The other fascinating thing about these graphs is that they appear to completely undercut the entire argument in the study You see, the program that they've used to delineate exposure started at the end of Julypic.twitter.com/NLqIR8srzS
23/n As far as I can tell from the study and news reports, it consisted of first identifying high-risk people for a week or two, then going house-by-house to test them and deliver care packages over the next few weeks/months
24/n This means that the EARLIEST that the program could've been delivering ivermectin is around the second week of August But look at the peaks of excess deaths in those graphspic.twitter.com/QjaXUNrslR
25/n It appears that in most cases, the peak of deaths happened in August ~or earlier~, which means that this program wasn't even started until deaths had already peaked in most places. This is a pretty huge issue for the analysis!
Don't those graphs show July as the peak, or, July->August as a break in trend? If program started in late July and August, isn't that what you'd expect if successful? Down from peak or (clear) break in trend?
Nope - the program *started* at that point, but the first step was rapid testing, then giving out packages. People would only have received ivermectin at the earliest at the start of August, but in most cases towards the end
Given lags in testing and reporting, that means even in the places that the program started earliest, the number of cases was trending down before people even got their ivermectin
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