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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      16/n To examine this influence, the authors conduct an analysis where they just look at people age>60, but this is a really crude dichotomization. The risk of COVID-19 death increases EXPONENTIALLY by age, so even above 60 there's a huge variancepic.twitter.com/dOWzzx2wPP

      1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      17/n For example, a 65yo is about 10x less likely to die than an 85yo. A population where the median age for >60yos is 65 might have a VERY different death rate than if the median is 75, depending on who gets infected

      1 reply 1 retweet 22 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      18/n The authors also produced these graphs, and argued that since they were relatively similar that government restrictions against COVID-19 didn't explain the difference in mortality that they sawpic.twitter.com/2ojQMWHrxQ

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      19/n As far as I can see they didn't actually TEST this possibility - they just eyeballed the graphs, and said they were similar enough But are they?

      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      20/n For example, the graph from Puno is plotted on a different axis to the others, which means that the declines in movement (the coloured lines) are all at least ~10% different to the other placespic.twitter.com/GhGMIt4omb

      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      21/n Also, the "excess" mortality is wildly different between regions, peaking at different times in different places. That's not that similar imo!

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      22/n The other fascinating thing about these graphs is that they appear to completely undercut the entire argument in the study You see, the program that they've used to delineate exposure started at the end of Julypic.twitter.com/NLqIR8srzS

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      23/n As far as I can tell from the study and news reports, it consisted of first identifying high-risk people for a week or two, then going house-by-house to test them and deliver care packages over the next few weeks/months

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      24/n This means that the EARLIEST that the program could've been delivering ivermectin is around the second week of August But look at the peaks of excess deaths in those graphspic.twitter.com/QjaXUNrslR

      1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      25/n It appears that in most cases, the peak of deaths happened in August ~or earlier~, which means that this program wasn't even started until deaths had already peaked in most places. This is a pretty huge issue for the analysis!

      4 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      26/n Anyway, at a basic level there's absolutely no way to estimate from the data how many people were actually taking ivermectin in any of these places, so this analysis cannot possibly show that ivermectin is effective or ineffective 🤷‍♂️

      5:30 PM - 8 Aug 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 49 Likes
      • Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Elle West Sarie van Wyk literally lizard, seekmaking truthsenser mojo🔋 webb Scott Small Flávia Feijó #TODOS PELAS VACINAS Nicole Tay Davide Battini
      11 replies 3 retweets 49 likes
        1. Frankie says ‘No NWC and no Fascism’‏ @PassiveStein Aug 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          Sloppy paper. Excellent analysis. I hope the reviewers are as critical as you. Thanks for doing this, we all need to understand the details—the devil is in them

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Kṛttikā‏ @lapleiade89 Aug 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          Given that there exists a plausible antiviral mechanism, evidence that routine AP use is correlated with lower C19 viral loads, non existent adverse effects at clinical doses and lots of positive outcomes from hospital data - why do you *only* focus on poor q studies? Stooge!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8
          Replying to @lapleiade89

          I've tweeted about several high-quality studies and why I think they're good actually. People just don't care very much, perhaps because most of them don't show much of a benefit

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Saodah Mahmoud‏ @SaodahMahmoud Aug 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          Saodah Mahmoud Retweeted J Chamie

          I think the author's schtick is to find trends and try to relate them to IVM in some way. Did the same with Mexico, India, Slovakia, etc. He tweeted this when cases in Tamil Nadu were rising: https://twitter.com/jjchamie/status/1396976944579858436?s=19 … When cases dropped just days later:https://twitter.com/jjchamie/status/1398850378343632899?s=19 …

          Saodah Mahmoud added,

          J Chamie @jjchamie
          Chennai, Tamil Nadu capital started a new COVID test and treat program on May 12. The program consists in the distribution of zinc, multivitamins and Kabasura Kudineer – a herbal drink. Three days after a sharp drop in cases started It could be related! https://archive.ph/BohzW  pic.twitter.com/Gw6Ij5jdHY
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Frankito Sapiente‏ @WeiseFranklin Aug 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          They also used an extremely strange metric -% of deaths decrease from deaths peak in a given period. I mean, sometimes it's not so easy to define the exact peak date (when there's a long plateau).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Mike‏ @M1k3ySCC Aug 9
          Replying to @GidMK

          Mike Retweeted

          What about this one? https://twitter.com/chrismartenson/status/1424368866956828672 …

          Mike added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. CaPPsiE  🇬🇧 🇪🇺‏ @cappsie Aug 11
          Replying to @GidMK

          This was an awesome piece of work. You're right up there with Sherlock Holmes with your deduction!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jenn Aze‏ @AzeJenn Aug 11
          Replying to @GidMK

          threadreaderapp unroll

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Jon DiPietro, Anti-"X"-mandate ≠ Anti-"X"‏ @jondipietronh Aug 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader Unroll Helper‏ @UnrollHelper Aug 18
          Replying to @jondipietronh

          Hello, here is your unroll: People have been linking me to this ecological analysis of ivermectin… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1424525769242406915.html … Enjoy :) 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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