13/n Using just two months of mortality data from the Peruvian summer to calculate an excess just doesn't make sense. A minor fluctuation in mortality could totally throw off your estimates
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24/n This means that the EARLIEST that the program could've been delivering ivermectin is around the second week of August But look at the peaks of excess deaths in those graphspic.twitter.com/QjaXUNrslR
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25/n It appears that in most cases, the peak of deaths happened in August ~or earlier~, which means that this program wasn't even started until deaths had already peaked in most places. This is a pretty huge issue for the analysis!
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26/n Anyway, at a basic level there's absolutely no way to estimate from the data how many people were actually taking ivermectin in any of these places, so this analysis cannot possibly show that ivermectin is effective or ineffective
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End of conversation
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