Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      People have been linking me to this ecological analysis of ivermectin for COVID-19 from Peru Long story short - I don't see much meaning to this preprint at all, certainly not that ivermectin is effective 1/npic.twitter.com/m9MDJc97vt

      19 replies 64 retweets 231 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

      2/n The paper is here. It's a fairly simplistic ecological study that compares states in Peru on their "excess" (we'll get to that later) mortality, and claims that ivermectin caused a huge reduction in deathshttps://osf.io/9egh4/ 

      5:19 PM - 8 Aug 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 24 Likes
      • Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Bobby The Yemenite Jim Soper✍ Balance SCOTUS! literally lizard, seekmaking truthsenser Nicole Tay Fabio Moraes Chris Street, 🇬🇧 MBA, MSc (Medicinal Chemistry) Maria Cameron Marcos Okajima Jr.
      1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          3/n They authors do this by dividing states into 3 categories - maximal, medium, and low ivermectin use. States with maximal use saw the greatest reductions in excess mortality from their peak and thus ivermectin is beneficial for COVID-19pic.twitter.com/Selb33oHvA

          2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          4/n So, first things first - how do we know how many people took ivermectin in each area to divide them into those 3 categories? Well, there was a government program in Peru in late July/August 2020 that involved testing citizens in regional areas for COVID-19 using rapid testspic.twitter.com/nwuodD0K36

          1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          5/n People who tested positive were given care packages that included food (so that they could isolate more effectively) as well as medicines. In some cases, the medicines included ivermectinpic.twitter.com/kstDh3MZm2

          2 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          6/n But there's an immediate issue here. Peru authorized and promoted the use of ivermectin in early May (as the authors acknowledge), and the primary use was through over-the-counter prescriptions

          2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          7/n Moreover, the number of packages distributed through this program appears relatively small - looking at the references, they imply numbers in the 1,000s, maybe 10,000s. We also don't know how many packages contained ivermectin at allpic.twitter.com/kVV01jg9IV

          1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          8/n On the other hand, we KNOW that ivermectin was very widely used across all states of Peru prior to July 2020. The government had already distributed 100,000s of doses at that point, while wealthier citizens had purchased doses for themselves as wellpic.twitter.com/neC8My8mpT

          1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          9/n This means that the exposure in this paper makes no sense. By all indications, the use of ivermectin in Peru was widespread in EVERY region, not just the 'maximal' one

          1 reply 2 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          10/n To conduct any sort of analysis here, we'd need a good estimate of HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE GIVEN IVERMECTION by area and week, and HOW MANY PEOPLE ACTUALLY TOOK IVERMECTIN We have neither of these

          1 reply 0 retweets 39 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          11/n Moving on, the outcome measure here is called "excess" deaths Here's how the authors calculated excess deaths. This is, uh, a very idiosyncratic way to make the calculationpic.twitter.com/ASdi03zQxA

          2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          12/n See, the problem is that when you calculate excess deaths you make an estimate of the TREND of mortality, and then look at how many deaths you see above this trend (adjusting seasonally) (H/T @ArielKarlinsky)pic.twitter.com/6MEcEj3ALg

          1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          13/n Using just two months of mortality data from the Peruvian summer to calculate an excess just doesn't make sense. A minor fluctuation in mortality could totally throw off your estimates

          3 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          14/n On top of all of that, we've got potential confounders. The authors attempted to correct for some of these but I don't think they've succeeded unfortunately

          1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          15/n For example, age. Older people die more from COVID-19, so places with more old people might see higher death rates that have nothing to do with ivermectin

          1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          16/n To examine this influence, the authors conduct an analysis where they just look at people age>60, but this is a really crude dichotomization. The risk of COVID-19 death increases EXPONENTIALLY by age, so even above 60 there's a huge variancepic.twitter.com/dOWzzx2wPP

          1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          17/n For example, a 65yo is about 10x less likely to die than an 85yo. A population where the median age for >60yos is 65 might have a VERY different death rate than if the median is 75, depending on who gets infected

          1 reply 1 retweet 22 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          18/n The authors also produced these graphs, and argued that since they were relatively similar that government restrictions against COVID-19 didn't explain the difference in mortality that they sawpic.twitter.com/2ojQMWHrxQ

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          19/n As far as I can see they didn't actually TEST this possibility - they just eyeballed the graphs, and said they were similar enough But are they?

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          20/n For example, the graph from Puno is plotted on a different axis to the others, which means that the declines in movement (the coloured lines) are all at least ~10% different to the other placespic.twitter.com/GhGMIt4omb

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          21/n Also, the "excess" mortality is wildly different between regions, peaking at different times in different places. That's not that similar imo!

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          22/n The other fascinating thing about these graphs is that they appear to completely undercut the entire argument in the study You see, the program that they've used to delineate exposure started at the end of Julypic.twitter.com/NLqIR8srzS

          1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          23/n As far as I can tell from the study and news reports, it consisted of first identifying high-risk people for a week or two, then going house-by-house to test them and deliver care packages over the next few weeks/months

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          24/n This means that the EARLIEST that the program could've been delivering ivermectin is around the second week of August But look at the peaks of excess deaths in those graphspic.twitter.com/QjaXUNrslR

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          25/n It appears that in most cases, the peak of deaths happened in August ~or earlier~, which means that this program wasn't even started until deaths had already peaked in most places. This is a pretty huge issue for the analysis!

          4 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 8

          26/n Anyway, at a basic level there's absolutely no way to estimate from the data how many people were actually taking ivermectin in any of these places, so this analysis cannot possibly show that ivermectin is effective or ineffective 🤷‍♂️

          11 replies 3 retweets 49 likes
          Show this thread
        26. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info