Considering that, the increase doesn't seem nearly as substantial. Going from 2.2 to 10 (~8-12) seems enormous, going from 6 up to 10...not quite as much
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The reality is that all of these numbers are very uncertain. Our initial R0 was uncertain. The modelled R0 of Delta is uncertain. We know it is more infectious, but the exact number is very hard to know for sure But it certainly COULD be as high as chickenpox
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I always thought the 2-3 estimate was low balling it (don't want to scare anyone now do we?), and there were a lot of studies that put 3 as a minimum. I think we're finally embracing reality with Delta.
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Disagree. I think no one ever realised how hard it is to model R0, and the inherent uncertainty in the number was largely ignored. Many of the confidence intervals were very, very wide
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Unfortunately I have seen many professionals suggesting that R0 has an exact value is somehow a biological constant. It cannot be.
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