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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6

    "Delta can't be as contagious as chickenpox, that's fearmongering!" The R0 of diseases is an ESTIMATED value that VARIES with location and context. Initial estimations of R0 for COVID-19 spanned from 2.2-6

    9:59 PM - 6 Aug 2021
    • 24 Retweets
    • 141 Likes
    • DaniM Diane Sleigh 🔴Janet 🐈‍ Danielle Hunter onahunttoday Catriona Lisi Glitzner-Zeis Ivan B. David de Andrade Nunes
    4 replies 24 retweets 141 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6

        Considering that, the increase doesn't seem nearly as substantial. Going from 2.2 to 10 (~8-12) seems enormous, going from 6 up to 10...not quite as much

        2 replies 4 retweets 59 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6

        The reality is that all of these numbers are very uncertain. Our initial R0 was uncertain. The modelled R0 of Delta is uncertain. We know it is more infectious, but the exact number is very hard to know for sure But it certainly COULD be as high as chickenpox 🤷‍♂️

        6 replies 12 retweets 110 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Josiah Grindrod‏ @JT_Grindrod Aug 6
        Replying to @GidMK

        I always thought the 2-3 estimate was low balling it (don't want to scare anyone now do we?), and there were a lot of studies that put 3 as a minimum. I think we're finally embracing reality with Delta.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
        Replying to @JT_Grindrod

        Disagree. I think no one ever realised how hard it is to model R0, and the inherent uncertainty in the number was largely ignored. Many of the confidence intervals were very, very wide

        1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Jörg Walter‏ @JoergWalterDE Aug 7
        Replying to @GidMK

        Unfortunately I have seen many professionals suggesting that R0 has an exact value is somehow a biological constant. It cannot be.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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