Though using that logic, doesn't that mean restrictions don't work, since the moment it goes away cases will surge? Of course, unless you are Victoria and implement 6 lockdowns.
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Replying to @youyanggu
Unless, as in the UK, you impose restrictions until you're sufficiently well-vaccinated to manage with only a small wave, in which case the restrictions save numerous lives. I guess it depends on your definition of 'works'
2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu
To be fair here, none of this is the slightest bit convincing, arguing about whether 'restrictions' work is a pointless waste of time because they vary widely from place to place. At the inflection point in your graph the UK had I believe only dropped indoor masking
3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu
I think we have common grounds here - restrictions vary widely from place to place. So it's odd for people in say NY to call for restrictions in FL or vice versa. But many experts did exactly that. To be clear, I agree I could've rephrased my orig Tweet.https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423721557642317824 …
Youyang Gu added,
Youyang Gu @youyangguReplying to @CT_BergstromThat's exactly my point! Too many people have been advocating for restrictions with little to no proof of causal inference. I should've said "there's no evidence that restrictions are effective", but alas that's Twitter. I clarify later in the thread. https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423415286401732626 …5 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @youyanggu
I would argue that your original tweet is pretty clearly incorrect. Depending on how you define "restrictions" and "work", there's a large body of evidence that they work in Western countries
5 replies 0 retweets 13 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
You alluded to this exact point earlier. The UK lockdowns are associated with plummeting infections in the winter, so many published papers saying "look! restrictions work!" But those papers all ignore what happened in the spring/summer when those restrictions get relaxed.
3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes -
Replying to @youyanggu
I mean, if we're defining "work" as "reduce short-term infections" then there is abundant and strong evidence that restrictions work. If your argument is about the long term of a pandemic, a single graph with a misplaced arrow is not a good way to make it imo
1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
Sure. Though as I said in another Tweet, saying "restrictions aren't all that effective" is no less scientifically accurate than saying "restrictions are effective". You've seen plenty of scientists claim the latter with no backlash, so there's definitely a double standard here.
2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes -
Replying to @youyanggu
So some other people being wrong makes you right? That's not logical
3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu
I already said that I could've rephrased that statement, and have since clarified. I will just end this with this again:https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423722981671440386 …
Youyang Gu added,
Youyang Gu @youyangguReplying to @youyanggu @CT_BergstromWhen people use mere correlation to suggest that restrictions are effective, you see scientists nod their heads. But when people use correlation to suggest restrictions aren't effective, scientists immediately scream "wrong". I just don't think that's very scientific, IMHO.3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
I mean, you said:
"We must acknowledge that restrictions aren't all that effective in Western countries."
I just don't think that's correct. And some unspecified people also being wrong doesn't make it correct imo 
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Replying to @GidMK
I mean if we were to debate semantics, "not all that effective" is not the same as "not effective". I'm not sure why it's so controversial to say "maybe these restrictions aren't as effective as we originally thought".
5 replies 0 retweets 19 likes -
Replying to @youyanggu @GidMK
They sure aren’t against delta. As long as people live in apartment buildings and do essential work like healthcare and food which we can’t stop delta will spread.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
End of conversation
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