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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Lol. Well they'd be just as wrong I guess! I do disagree with pretty much the entire tweet anyway, but the Australia thing is Jussi obviously incorrect. Ignoring the impact of vaccines in the UK is particularly confusing

      3 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      To be absolutely fair, I'm sure I can find many instances where you refer to the US Covid response when you only meant to refer to states like Florida. And I do talk about the impact of vaccines in the 3rd Tweet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      I mean, feel free to go for it I've tried to be specific. And I mean the graph in your first tweet, it's pretty clearly incorrect, restrictions were gradually relaxed as vaccine rates went up, then there was a peak of infections in the unvaccinated

      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

      Pretty much the opposite of what you'd expect to see if restrictions didn't work tbh

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      Though using that logic, doesn't that mean restrictions don't work, since the moment it goes away cases will surge? Of course, unless you are Victoria and implement 6 lockdowns.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Unless, as in the UK, you impose restrictions until you're sufficiently well-vaccinated to manage with only a small wave, in which case the restrictions save numerous lives. I guess it depends on your definition of 'works'

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

      To be fair here, none of this is the slightest bit convincing, arguing about whether 'restrictions' work is a pointless waste of time because they vary widely from place to place. At the inflection point in your graph the UK had I believe only dropped indoor masking

      3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
    8. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

      I think we have common grounds here - restrictions vary widely from place to place. So it's odd for people in say NY to call for restrictions in FL or vice versa. But many experts did exactly that. To be clear, I agree I could've rephrased my orig Tweet.https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423721557642317824 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Youyang Gu @youyanggu
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom
      That's exactly my point! Too many people have been advocating for restrictions with little to no proof of causal inference. I should've said "there's no evidence that restrictions are effective", but alas that's Twitter. I clarify later in the thread. https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423415286401732626 …
      5 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      I would argue that your original tweet is pretty clearly incorrect. Depending on how you define "restrictions" and "work", there's a large body of evidence that they work in Western countries

      5 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
    10. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

      Yes, "work" is a very loose term. When there is a bias in the scientific community/peer review process, then you will undoubtedly get a "large body of evidence" that supports one side. Also most of those only look at short-term effects, not long-term.https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423722981671440386 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Youyang Gu @youyanggu
      Replying to @youyanggu @CT_Bergstrom
      When people use mere correlation to suggest that restrictions are effective, you see scientists nod their heads. But when people use correlation to suggest restrictions aren't effective, scientists immediately scream "wrong". I just don't think that's very scientific, IMHO.
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      I've been very clear that it is difficult to assess, but you simply haven't defined effective not even what you mean by restrictions. You can say anything as long as you're vague!

      4:06 PM - 6 Aug 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • NK Leb Alex Merz
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
          Replying to @GidMK

          I mean it's Twitter so I can only say so much in 280 characters. I'm not purposely trying to be vague. But I've done plenty of analysis on the effect of restrictions, w/detailed definitions. Obviously not perfectly rigorous, but feel free to take a look. https://covid19-projections.com/twitter-threads/#original-research …

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Zach Hensel‏ @alchemytoday Aug 6
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          Grabbing the headlines used to announce removing/adding measures in the Netherlands here - https://www.government.nl/latest/news  - obviously vaccination, summer vacation, and growth of Delta are contributing to this in different ways as well, but I'd say +/- mitigation made a difference.pic.twitter.com/VL9kLwnGU0

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Zach Hensel‏ @alchemytoday Aug 6
          Replying to @alchemytoday @GidMK @youyanggu

          I just eyeballed it but the arrows are in more or less the right place; the peak is amplified a bit I think by contact tracing being fairly good for mass events that were briefly allowed

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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