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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Well, in the same way Florida is a part of the United States and therefore I assume it is justifiable to argue that since a lack of restrictions has seemingly caused hospitals to fill up with COVID-19 there that this is true of the entire US

      2 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      Actually... that's exactly what many people are saying!

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Lol. Well they'd be just as wrong I guess! I do disagree with pretty much the entire tweet anyway, but the Australia thing is Jussi obviously incorrect. Ignoring the impact of vaccines in the UK is particularly confusing

      3 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      To be absolutely fair, I'm sure I can find many instances where you refer to the US Covid response when you only meant to refer to states like Florida. And I do talk about the impact of vaccines in the 3rd Tweet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      I mean, feel free to go for it I've tried to be specific. And I mean the graph in your first tweet, it's pretty clearly incorrect, restrictions were gradually relaxed as vaccine rates went up, then there was a peak of infections in the unvaccinated

      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

      Pretty much the opposite of what you'd expect to see if restrictions didn't work tbh

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
    7. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      Though using that logic, doesn't that mean restrictions don't work, since the moment it goes away cases will surge? Of course, unless you are Victoria and implement 6 lockdowns.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Unless, as in the UK, you impose restrictions until you're sufficiently well-vaccinated to manage with only a small wave, in which case the restrictions save numerous lives. I guess it depends on your definition of 'works'

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

      To be fair here, none of this is the slightest bit convincing, arguing about whether 'restrictions' work is a pointless waste of time because they vary widely from place to place. At the inflection point in your graph the UK had I believe only dropped indoor masking

      3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
    10. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
      Replying to @GidMK

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

      I think we have common grounds here - restrictions vary widely from place to place. So it's odd for people in say NY to call for restrictions in FL or vice versa. But many experts did exactly that. To be clear, I agree I could've rephrased my orig Tweet.https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423721557642317824 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Youyang Gu @youyanggu
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom
      That's exactly my point! Too many people have been advocating for restrictions with little to no proof of causal inference. I should've said "there's no evidence that restrictions are effective", but alas that's Twitter. I clarify later in the thread. https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423415286401732626 …
      5 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
      Replying to @youyanggu

      I would argue that your original tweet is pretty clearly incorrect. Depending on how you define "restrictions" and "work", there's a large body of evidence that they work in Western countries

      3:55 PM - 6 Aug 2021
      • 13 Likes
      • Oliver Maclaren Fyeris Nathalie Ponak Breakfast at Epiphany's Cien Flores Gordon:Covid grapher, data hunter-gatherer NK Leb Daniel Cheek
      5 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
        1. ab ab‏ @ab83635723 Aug 6
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          the more precise wording is: no evidence the restrictions removed on 19th july (rule of 6 indoors, 30 outdoors, no clubbing) did much that can be debated well because those restrictions were not being obeyed

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
          Replying to @GidMK

          Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

          Yes, "work" is a very loose term. When there is a bias in the scientific community/peer review process, then you will undoubtedly get a "large body of evidence" that supports one side. Also most of those only look at short-term effects, not long-term.https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423722981671440386 …

          Youyang Gu added,

          Youyang Gu @youyanggu
          Replying to @youyanggu @CT_Bergstrom
          When people use mere correlation to suggest that restrictions are effective, you see scientists nod their heads. But when people use correlation to suggest restrictions aren't effective, scientists immediately scream "wrong". I just don't think that's very scientific, IMHO.
          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
          Replying to @youyanggu

          I've been very clear that it is difficult to assess, but you simply haven't defined effective not even what you mean by restrictions. You can say anything as long as you're vague!

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Aug 6
          Replying to @GidMK

          You alluded to this exact point earlier. The UK lockdowns are associated with plummeting infections in the winter, so many published papers saying "look! restrictions work!" But those papers all ignore what happened in the spring/summer when those restrictions get relaxed.

          3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 6
          Replying to @youyanggu

          I mean, if we're defining "work" as "reduce short-term infections" then there is abundant and strong evidence that restrictions work. If your argument is about the long term of a pandemic, a single graph with a misplaced arrow is not a good way to make it imo

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. scienceteacher‏ @science63424214 Aug 7
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          scienceteacher Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

          Here we go again...https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1423508714909167621?s=19 …

          scienceteacher added,

          Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
          https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1423415277765734402 … pic.twitter.com/PPE3Wk25WV
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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