Interesting new paper from @giridar100 arguing that India's COVID-19 undercount was *always* likely because of systematic issues with death reporting
Estimates that the true death toll in India is likely to be 5.5-11x higherhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.641991/full …
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What do you think about the quality of analysis in this paper? It seems to have lots of correction factors, using data from 2018, comparing to IFRs from other countries without basis, multiplying numbers without considering temporal/spatial patterns...
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@GidMK I was surprised how this paper got accepted. It turns out that "Frontiers In" comes under potentially predatory category and publishing "Perspective" articles like this costs 1850USD. Case closed!
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This is not near a responsable statement. NOT NEAR! Ok. Only one. The data are shit. New India estimates compare it with other data. Those are also shit. No, these data are not shit as we compared them to other data that are ...
@nntaleb@yaneerbaryam@falsel_netThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This is why we say our global undercount estimate of 1.4 is only for the countries we have. India alone, even if excess is "only 1m"v prob. doubles it. Not to mention Indonesia, Pakistan and most of Africa.
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How can you count a global undercount estimate as the undercount estimate of the best reporting countries is bullshit as well? I looked thoroughly at Dutch figures with (subjective) new accounting techniques for huge projects. NL est. excess deaths 31,000. My est 45,000+ !!
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I would like to mention that the perspective we wish to highlight is the potential mortality surveillance system to capture deaths in a country. While this is well established in developed countries, most countries in Africa and South east Asia don't have robust mortality systems
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So this would not apply to other countries overall. The idea is to acknowledge the aspect of low death registration and medical certification when accounting for under-counting of COVID-19 deaths.
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