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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 5

      Interesting new paper from @giridar100 arguing that India's COVID-19 undercount was *always* likely because of systematic issues with death reporting Estimates that the true death toll in India is likely to be 5.5-11x higherhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.641991/full …

      4 replies 23 retweets 87 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 5

      "The “low mortality” narrative based on the reported COVID-19 deaths may be causing more harm than benefit"pic.twitter.com/5TTZDqcd8q

      2 replies 5 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 5

      For context, the current death toll in India is 430,000, this would mean 2.37-4.74million deaths, which is in line with other esimates It would also increase the WORLDWIDE toll from COVID-19 by 40-80% (!)

      6:31 PM - 5 Aug 2021
      • 14 Retweets
      • 48 Likes
      • hbd chick Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität 🇪🇸 Balkrai 🇪🇸 rictic Sean Purdy 🇵🇸 #VACINAJÁ Mark Boyle JayMan Fabien (Il/He) #Pfizer 2/2 💉💉 Firebrand Dove
      4 replies 14 retweets 48 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Abhishek Roy‏ @virtuabhi Aug 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          What do you think about the quality of analysis in this paper? It seems to have lots of correction factors, using data from 2018, comparing to IFRs from other countries without basis, multiplying numbers without considering temporal/spatial patterns...

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        3. Abhishek Roy‏ @virtuabhi Aug 5
          Replying to @virtuabhi @GidMK

          @GidMK I was surprised how this paper got accepted. It turns out that "Frontiers In" comes under potentially predatory category and publishing "Perspective" articles like this costs 1850USD. Case closed!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Peter Spitters 🇪🇺 😷 📉 🌎 ⚠️‏ @PeterSpitters Aug 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          This is not near a responsable statement. NOT NEAR! Ok. Only one. The data are shit. New India estimates compare it with other data. Those are also shit. No, these data are not shit as we compared them to other data that are ... @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @falsel_net

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Aug 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          This is why we say our global undercount estimate of 1.4 is only for the countries we have. India alone, even if excess is "only 1m"v prob. doubles it. Not to mention Indonesia, Pakistan and most of Africa.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Peter Spitters 🇪🇺 😷 📉 🌎 ⚠️‏ @PeterSpitters Aug 6
          Replying to @ArielKarlinsky @GidMK

          How can you count a global undercount estimate as the undercount estimate of the best reporting countries is bullshit as well? I looked thoroughly at Dutch figures with (subjective) new accounting techniques for huge projects. NL est. excess deaths 31,000. My est 45,000+ !!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Giridara Gopal Parameswaran‏ @giridar100 Aug 7
          Replying to @GidMK

          I would like to mention that the perspective we wish to highlight is the potential mortality surveillance system to capture deaths in a country. While this is well established in developed countries, most countries in Africa and South east Asia don't have robust mortality systems

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Giridara Gopal Parameswaran‏ @giridar100 Aug 7
          Replying to @giridar100 @GidMK

          So this would not apply to other countries overall. The idea is to acknowledge the aspect of low death registration and medical certification when accounting for under-counting of COVID-19 deaths.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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