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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 4

      Health Nerd Retweeted Atomsk's Sanakan

      Oh man, I remember this one. There was a study from a single clinic in one ward in Tokyo that did not correct for specificity. If you assumed that the uncorrected serology estimate of this one clinic was representative of the entire city of Tokyo, you got an IFR of 0.02%https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1423043538103803904 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Atomsk's Sanakan @AtomsksSanakan
      37/E Thread above rebuts Ioannidis under-estimating east Asia's IFR by >10X a year ago, as he criticized @LeaMerone + @GidMK's IFR paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7524446/ … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.12.21256975 … from 26:54: "[In] Japan we have studies that show an IFR of 0.02%" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4TS38h81JE&t=1614s …
      Show this thread
      4 replies 9 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 4

      About a month later, the govt of Japan did an official serological study that found the prevalence was about 40x lower than this study implied, using a large representative sample, which implied an IFR of about 0.8%

      2 replies 2 retweets 35 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 4

      Apologies, I'm getting my serology studies confused. The 0.04% estimate is from the Tokyo study, the 0.02% estimate here is from a similar study conducted in Kobe City at a single hospital with no correction for specificitypic.twitter.com/FC1i1aMmgM

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 4

      Worth noting as always - this is not a criticism of the research, because these authors were very upfront about the limitations of their work. They even said that the confidence interval for these estimates was very wide because the sens/spec of the serological test was unknown

      3:46 PM - 4 Aug 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 17 Likes
      • Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität #BeKind & act, b/c we are all f*cked. Jesus Christ Johnny Rhee🔴 Dr Rick ⛔ fishelfe Guffy z i f Liz "The Mask Goes Over Your Nose AND Mouth" Ditz
      2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 4

          Interestingly, a recent third-party evaluation of the serological test used indicates that it has a specificity of 98 (94-100)%, which means it's possible all positives in the sample were false positives and the true prevalence was 0% (increasing the IFR substantially)

          1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 4

          They used the Kurabo rapid antibody test, which was evaluated here:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7959261/ …

          0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Daniel Herrera‏ @dherrera1911 Aug 4
          Replying to @GidMK

          Semi related datum. 0.17% of the population in Uruguay died from/with COVID, but most of the deaths were after the massive vaccination campaign was in place and many elderly had been vaccinated, likely reducing the IFR by a big amount in that period.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Daniel Herrera‏ @dherrera1911 Aug 4
          Replying to @dherrera1911 @GidMK

          BTW. till December 2020, when admittedly still few deaths had happened in the country (although in the loss-of-control stage already), an official report estimated that only 6.5% of deaths were "with COVID"https://www.gub.uy/ministerio-salud-publica/comunicacion/noticias/informe-epidemiologico-sobre-mortalidad-covid-19-del-31-diciembre-2020 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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