Oh man, I remember this one. There was a study from a single clinic in one ward in Tokyo that did not correct for specificity. If you assumed that the uncorrected serology estimate of this one clinic was representative of the entire city of Tokyo, you got an IFR of 0.02%https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1423043538103803904 …
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About a month later, the govt of Japan did an official serological study that found the prevalence was about 40x lower than this study implied, using a large representative sample, which implied an IFR of about 0.8%
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Replying to @GidMK
Wow, a guide of ‘what not to do in epidemiology.’ I reckon we could teach students just by using your Twitter feed as the core reading
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Replying to @ellyhowse
Yeh, everyone learns about denominators in epi class and then published research just completely ignores them I guess 
3:44 PM - 4 Aug 2021
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