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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      An excellent new paper out recently by @dherrera1911 uses serology data to estimate age-specific severe and critical rates of COVID-19 disease The findings emphasize how dangerous COVID-19 can be even for younger people https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …pic.twitter.com/v296cuP1Is

      10 replies 144 retweets 284 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      This study used the estimates that we put together (ping @BillHanage) looking at the age-stratified IFRs (infection-fatality rates) for COVID-19, and then went further, identifying places that had hospitalization and ICU admission data by age as well

      1 reply 5 retweets 35 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      The authors found that the infection serious and critical rates (ISR/ICR) were similarly exponential, but had different slopespic.twitter.com/sFJAcYgapJ

      1 reply 10 retweets 46 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      What this means is that while IFR increases by about 3x per 10 years of age, ISR is higher overall but only increases by about 2x for every 10 years of age

      1 reply 9 retweets 35 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      In turn, this means that the hospitalization/serious disease rate for younger people is really quite high Based on the studies included here, while only 1 in 5,000 30yos will die of COVID-19, 1 in 1,000 will go to ICU and 1 in 133 will be hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/jNAZIBP0lp

      7 replies 66 retweets 122 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      Two big takeaways: 1. Even epidemics of COVID-19 that are contained largely in younger people will have severe consequences for the healthcare system 2. Vaccines are far safer than COVID-19 even for younger people

      7 replies 47 retweets 188 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      I think the comparison between Astrazeneca and disease here is a great example - without vaccination, someone my age would have a 1 in 133 chance of going to hospital if they catch COVID-19. The risk of TTS from AZ is more like 1 in 50,000

      7:15 PM - 3 Aug 2021
      • 31 Retweets
      • 144 Likes
      • blaaaa Riley Yates (she/her) Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität lisa witham Ceri Turner FVM #BeKind & act, b/c we are all f*cked. Cub, et cetera. Charles Lourenco
      12 replies 31 retweets 144 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Evan Parkes‏ @purplepils99 Aug 3
          Replying to @GidMK

          Do you have the risk of hospitalization for pfizer and moderna as well? Or is the data not as clear? Appreciate all the studies and maths you look over, thanks!

          2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3
          Replying to @purplepils99

          From my understanding it is quite similar, but I'll have to check the figures

          2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Penny Durham‏ @pennydee Aug 3
          Replying to @GidMK

          Gid, all your IFR work from last year - how different do you think Delta is? is it the same pattern, intensified across all age groups, or is the curve a different shape or a shallower gradient? or not enough data yet? (excuse poorly worded qs)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3
          Replying to @pennydee

          Hard to figure out, because Delta may be worse but our treatments have gotten better. Whether those two influences cancel out is very hard to estimate!

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani Aug 3
          Replying to @GidMK

          I have been pointing people to @TheEconomist risk estimator, which also includes the option of indicatig pre-existing conditions. I have not checked whether the table above and this "match", but it might be useful to have an intuitive graphical interfacehttps://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator …

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani Aug 3
          Replying to @Marco_Piani @GidMK @TheEconomist

          I would suggest that people who can/want evaluate their risk using both resources and cannot quite decide which is the one that best capture their risk, take a precautionary approach and pick the highest risk of the two (e.g., the highest percentage of negative outcome)

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Big‏ @Shlant_ Aug 3
          Replying to @GidMK

          I thought the TTS was 1 in 250000 or something fro AU data. Where are you getting 1 in 50000 from?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3
          Replying to @Shlant_

          It is higher in younger age groups - from the ATAGI modelling it is 1.9/100,000 for age 30 (I rounded the figure)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Ahmad Alloush‏ @ahmad_70x Aug 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          this table is from sanfordguide, I want to ask why is it bad to have only 8 death cases in the control group for the reliability of the study about astrazeneca efficacy vs. sever disease?pic.twitter.com/pM4EZEEqRe

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Lorenzo‏ @ProcessNamed Aug 6
          Replying to @GidMK

          Unless I am mistaken the fatality rate for TTS is much higher than covid-related hospitalization for young people, could that be the reason why EMA initially used ICU admissions as "risk" in their comparison?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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