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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      An excellent new paper out recently by @dherrera1911 uses serology data to estimate age-specific severe and critical rates of COVID-19 disease The findings emphasize how dangerous COVID-19 can be even for younger people https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v1 …pic.twitter.com/v296cuP1Is

      10 replies 144 retweets 284 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      This study used the estimates that we put together (ping @BillHanage) looking at the age-stratified IFRs (infection-fatality rates) for COVID-19, and then went further, identifying places that had hospitalization and ICU admission data by age as well

      1 reply 5 retweets 35 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      The authors found that the infection serious and critical rates (ISR/ICR) were similarly exponential, but had different slopespic.twitter.com/sFJAcYgapJ

      1 reply 10 retweets 46 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      What this means is that while IFR increases by about 3x per 10 years of age, ISR is higher overall but only increases by about 2x for every 10 years of age

      1 reply 9 retweets 35 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      In turn, this means that the hospitalization/serious disease rate for younger people is really quite high Based on the studies included here, while only 1 in 5,000 30yos will die of COVID-19, 1 in 1,000 will go to ICU and 1 in 133 will be hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/jNAZIBP0lp

      7 replies 66 retweets 122 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

      Two big takeaways: 1. Even epidemics of COVID-19 that are contained largely in younger people will have severe consequences for the healthcare system 2. Vaccines are far safer than COVID-19 even for younger people

      7:15 PM - 3 Aug 2021
      • 47 Retweets
      • 188 Likes
      • duringlayover blaaaa Natacha Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität lisa witham J. Fernando Gudiño-Rosero Ceri Turner FVM Big Smiffy
      7 replies 47 retweets 188 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Aug 3

          I think the comparison between Astrazeneca and disease here is a great example - without vaccination, someone my age would have a 1 in 133 chance of going to hospital if they catch COVID-19. The risk of TTS from AZ is more like 1 in 50,000

          12 replies 31 retweets 144 likes
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        2. Trot Stats‏ @TrotStats Aug 3
          Replying to @GidMK

          One useful way to look at it might be...assume covid became endemic and an unvaccinated 20yo caught it every 2 or 3 years (waning immunity like flu?). What's the chance they would have a severe/critical outcome or death before 60?

          2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        3. Trot Stats‏ @TrotStats Aug 3
          Replying to @TrotStats @GidMK

          Or if you are an unvaccinated 60yo and caught it every 2 or 3 years, what's the chance you would die from it before 80? That might help people appreciate the severity of it.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Garfunkle‏ @FamularoJoel Aug 3
          Replying to @GidMK

          1) What about a healthy 30 yr old? One without any pre existing conditions? What are their chances of dying from Covid? 2) And do we yet know any of the mechanisms for adverse events with the vaccines? Like why are they happening?

          5 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Matt Bell‏ @matt7738 Aug 4
          Replying to @GidMK

          Wait til they find out what the risk of adverse events are for OCPs. But people are popping those like candy.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Peter Harrison‏ @Villager1244 Aug 4
          Replying to @GidMK

          Delta does appear to be different (more hazardous), especially for those <60. Here's HFR data for a hospital system I'm somewhat familiar with. Unprecedented staffing pressures may be at play but clearly hospitalization today is quite hazardous for age 40-60.pic.twitter.com/N7HTm7Kihm

          0 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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