This study used the estimates that we put together (ping @BillHanage) looking at the age-stratified IFRs (infection-fatality rates) for COVID-19, and then went further, identifying places that had hospitalization and ICU admission data by age as well
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The authors found that the infection serious and critical rates (ISR/ICR) were similarly exponential, but had different slopespic.twitter.com/sFJAcYgapJ
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What this means is that while IFR increases by about 3x per 10 years of age, ISR is higher overall but only increases by about 2x for every 10 years of age
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In turn, this means that the hospitalization/serious disease rate for younger people is really quite high Based on the studies included here, while only 1 in 5,000 30yos will die of COVID-19, 1 in 1,000 will go to ICU and 1 in 133 will be hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/jNAZIBP0lp
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Two big takeaways: 1. Even epidemics of COVID-19 that are contained largely in younger people will have severe consequences for the healthcare system 2. Vaccines are far safer than COVID-19 even for younger people
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I think the comparison between Astrazeneca and disease here is a great example - without vaccination, someone my age would have a 1 in 133 chance of going to hospital if they catch COVID-19. The risk of TTS from AZ is more like 1 in 50,000
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Thanks Gideon, really appreciate the help with the outreach. You've been very kind with your time.
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It was my pleasure!
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I wonder how much delta has altered this. The anecdotal evidence of increased severs disease in younger people is certainly mounting.
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Even if Delta is only equally severe (or even less severe), increased transmissibility may result in a greater absolute number of young people getting sick/dying (because more total people get infected).
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