You can throw anything into a meta-analysis model. Here's a model I just ran on the ratio of hosting to participating in the summer Olympics. This is meaningless!pic.twitter.com/snEmahYVDg
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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You can throw anything into a meta-analysis model. Here's a model I just ran on the ratio of hosting to participating in the summer Olympics. This is meaningless!pic.twitter.com/snEmahYVDg
We tend to put meta-analyses on a pedestal, but the fact is that statistically aggregating evidence is a total waste of time if that evidence is all bad
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
This recent Cochrane review is a perfect example - they looked at the evidence for ivermectin for COVID-19, but because most of it was terrible they only included a few studies in their modelhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1420340231786549253?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
This is also where the phrase "garbage in, garbage out" comes from. If your meta-analysis includes numbers from studies that are terrible, the final point estimate is as meaningless as my graph above on the Olympics 
Some people think meta-analysis is impressive because it involves fancy statistical software, but it's entirely possible to implement a Dersimonian-Laird inverse-variance model in Excel with a stats textbook and a few hours of time
Ok, so what would you currently say is the probability that IVM is effective, given your read of the evidence so far?
Extremely difficult to put an accurate estimate on the probability. I would say that the best current evidence is consistent with either a large benefit or a large harm from taking IVM, and therefore you can't really make a decision based on the data we have
I see — any pointers toward where the evidence is for large harm?
The confidence intervals from the highest-quality research are extremely wide, and include both benefit and harm. See the recent Cochrane review: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD015017.pub2/full#CD015017-sec-0049 …
How surprised would you be if it turned out that IVM was quite effective against C19?
I would be surprised if there was a huge benefit for mortality, but entirely unsurprised if it turned out to be moderately effective. I'd also be unsurprised if it turned out not to work at all, or to harm people
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