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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      Something that I keep seeing pop up is the idea that meta-analysis somehow eliminates issues with the underlying research This is just confusingly incorrect

      23 replies 69 retweets 447 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      Meta-analysis really is just a simple statistical aggregation of results. Indeed, the most basic way to meta-analyze studies is just to use a mean or median of their point-estimates

      2 replies 5 retweets 59 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      But simple means/medians can be misleading - we don't really want a study of 10,000 to have the same weighting as a study of 10, but that's what a simple average provides

      2 replies 1 retweet 49 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      When we run a meta-analytic model, what we are actually doing is generating a WEIGHTED mean/median, and confidence interval. Essentially, we take all of the means and SEs, and based on that our model weights them with bigger studies generally contributing more to the modelpic.twitter.com/8WrRkjVflu

      1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      You'll notice I've said nothing about the underlying quality of the evidence That's because META-ANALYSIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH QUALITY OF EVIDENCE

      4 replies 6 retweets 74 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      You can throw anything into a meta-analysis model. Here's a model I just ran on the ratio of hosting to participating in the summer Olympics. This is meaningless!pic.twitter.com/snEmahYVDg

      2 replies 3 retweets 35 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      We tend to put meta-analyses on a pedestal, but the fact is that statistically aggregating evidence is a total waste of time if that evidence is all bad

      4 replies 19 retweets 114 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      This recent Cochrane review is a perfect example - they looked at the evidence for ivermectin for COVID-19, but because most of it was terrible they only included a few studies in their modelhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1420340231786549253?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Cochrane review on ivermectin just dropped. This is the current gold-standard summary: "the reliable evidence available does not support the use ivermectin for treatment or prevention of COVID‐19 outside of well‐designed randomized trials." https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD015017.pub2/full …
      Show this thread
      6 replies 12 retweets 60 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      This is also where the phrase "garbage in, garbage out" comes from. If your meta-analysis includes numbers from studies that are terrible, the final point estimate is as meaningless as my graph above on the Olympics 🤷‍♂️

      7 replies 8 retweets 90 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28

      Some people think meta-analysis is impressive because it involves fancy statistical software, but it's entirely possible to implement a Dersimonian-Laird inverse-variance model in Excel with a stats textbook and a few hours of time

      4:41 PM - 28 Jul 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 68 Likes
      • Georgina Davis Alison is Tired of Covidiots Jack Lawrence TSRHG Steve Pigman Steffen Christensen Abundant Heaven Integrative Acupuncture MaximusDerrick Gwen Macchione, MPA, MA(H), PgDip
      10 replies 3 retweets 68 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lokjith‏ @coz_am_lokjith Jul 28
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp Unroll

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp Jul 28
          Replying to @coz_am_lokjith

          Hi, here is your unroll: Something that I keep seeing pop up is the idea that meta-analysis… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1420529664129261569.html … Enjoy :) 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Dr Able Lawrence 🦉MD DM‏ @abledoc Jul 28
          Replying to @GidMK

          That's how I learned to do meta analysis as I couldn't afford to buy any software then. Meta analysis math is useful for a lot of things beyond usual metaanalysis. Eg adjusting for confounders.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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        1. New conversation
        2. Patrick Charles - ID Doctor‏ @P_Charles_ID_Dr Jul 28
          Replying to @GidMK

          I've always agreed with the analogy of a meta-analysis being like where you put a whole group of small turds in a meat grinder and expect that a bar of gold comes out. In reality, you just end up with one giant turd.

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        3. Paradoxa‏ @Paradoxa18 Jul 28
          Replying to @P_Charles_ID_Dr @DrPieterPeach @GidMK

          21st century alchemy?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Eigenworld‏ @eigenworld Jul 28
          Replying to @GidMK

          So I think a more accurate statement is that meta-analysis highly weighted by low quality research is valueless. This might be better than saying meta-analysis is useless. No need to contempt meta-analysis as a method itself.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28
          Replying to @eigenworld

          Meta-analysis is a simple aggregation of data, and thus is only as valuable or valueless as the underlying research. Gold-standard clinical trials systematically reviewed -> high-value meta-analysis

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Leo Trottier‏ @trottiest Jul 28
          Replying to @GidMK

          Ok, so what would you currently say is the probability that IVM is effective, given your read of the evidence so far?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Jul 28
          Replying to @trottiest

          Extremely difficult to put an accurate estimate on the probability. I would say that the best current evidence is consistent with either a large benefit or a large harm from taking IVM, and therefore you can't really make a decision based on the data we have

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. steve thomson‏ @dialucrii31 Jul 29
          Replying to @GidMK

          We are 18 months into a vital pandemic and we still have no out outpatient treatment for those infected - we send them home to "rest" for 2 weeks. How fu**ed up is that when early treatment is crucial in viral infection. There had been almost zero investment by governments into

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies

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