India estimated death toll due to COVID-19 - 2.5-4.5 million. Between 0.15-0.4% of the entire country dead from the disease Not exactly what I'd call good news tbhhttps://twitter.com/TonyHinton2016/status/1419706548729913347 …
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Replying to @GidMK
Tbh I have some concerns about really high numbers from serosurveys:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.10.21256855v1 …
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Replying to @ENirenberg @GidMK
Could you explain your concerns to a layperson?
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People who have had malaria can make antibodies that could give a positive result on a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test even if they haven't been infected before which could cause overestimation of the proportion of the population that has had it
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Also these antibodies have no apparent protective function against SARS-CoV-2 as far as we can tell, which doubly sucks.
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Replying to @ENirenberg @ChefMiew
Also several of the serological tests are very unreliable. One test has different sensitivity depending on which batch the researchers had
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Yes that's also an excellent point. And when you think about how many people have to be tested for a reliable serosurvey all the PPV/NPV issues become really significant.
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Honestly the more I think about it the less possible it seems to do a decent serosurvey
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That's why it's taken us 6 months to get reasonable IFR estimates for developing countries!
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Honestly can’t we just have a manuscript that said “The IFR is too damn high!” And call it a day?
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